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Tuesday, 19 January 16
HAPPY NEW YEAR, COAL PRODUCERS! OR MAYBE NOT - ANDY ROBERTS
 To coal producers, 2015 must have seemed far longer than 365 days. From their perspective, as bad as markets were at the beginning of the year, and they were genuinely awful, they look positively effervescent compared to today.
Coal markets now?
Demand: weak. Supply: excessive. Prices: tumbling. Margins: emaciated.
Who can blame coal producers for rushing to close the books on a really bad year and shifting their gazes to tomorrow?
Ah, but what might tomorrow bring? No help from across the Atlantic. It may not be running away from coal, but Europe is at least swiftly walking. In the US, low natural gas prices and steady political pressure will further depress already weak coal demand and prices. Latin American and African demand are, well, as inconsequential as always.
In the Asia-Pacific region, Chinese seaborne market dominance has faded as the country snubs coal while simultaneously (and contrarily) protecting domestic producers. Only India and southeast Asia will increase imports, but just modestly. So, across the industry, 2016 promises more pain than gain.
It’s what producers won’t do that matters most. They won’t sufficiently rationalize production to balance supply and demand. They won’t, because most of them can’t, repair debt-laden balance sheets and that will leave many vulnerable and their bond-holders squeamish. They won’t find it easy to re-capitalize their mines because financers are backing away from coal.
Coal producers are going to suffer through another painful year, perhaps even worse than the last one. In fact, producers are facing several years, if not decades, of low prices, anaemic demand, chronic overcapacity and “margins” that would scare most non-coal businesses into closing their doors. But not coal producers.
This is a resilient and optimistic bunch, accustomed to long periods of low real prices and profitless years. They have been here before although they will find that this extended poor market is just the beginning. With concentrated global action underway to address climate change and with the cost of renewable energy on a swift and impressive decline, many coal producers may finally meet their Waterloo. A long, slow harvest is inescapable.
There will be survivors, of course, who will be focused on strategies that lower cost and allow them to compete. Others will turn to long-term strategies that could include energy diversification. But these steps will not alleviate the pain that all coal producers must face in the next few years.
So, coal producers may have found a lump of coal in their Christmas stocking in 2015, but even that will look good by Christmas 2016 … and 2017 … and 2018. For many, better prospects are a rapidly fading memory.
-Andy Roberts | Wood Mackenzie -
About Andy Roberts
Roberts is a mining engineer with a background in operations, planning and market analysis. He has worked in the coal, base metal, oil shale, tar sand and uranium businesses. In 2008, Andy joined Wood Mackenzie where in his consulting and research role he uses fundamental analysis to help his clients understand.
About Wood Mackenzie
As a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries, Wood Mackenzi provides objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insight they need to make better strategic decisions. (http://www.woodmac.com/blog)
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Wednesday, 20 January 16
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASOS SOULAKIS
If you believe in the “January effect”, the theory according to which the beginning of a new year has a positive effect on financial in ...
Tuesday, 19 January 16
COALTRANS ASIA IS RETURNING TO BALI
22nd Coaltrans Asia
Coaltrans Asia is returning to Bali to bring together over 1000 industry decision makers and thought leaders for three day ...
Monday, 18 January 16
INDONESIAN 5700 GAR COAL INDEX ROSE 0.60% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: Average 5000 GAR coal index of Indonesian origin decline slightly week over week to averaging $39.93 per ton on this past Friday, acc ...
Monday, 18 January 16
BALTIC DRY SHIPPING INDEX DROPS TO 373 POINTS; DECLINE 13% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market dropped this week as the BDI declined further 13 percent to 373 points week over week. The Cape index ...
Monday, 18 January 16
Q1'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 42.50 PER TON; UP 1% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery rose US$ 0.43 (1.02%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap is ...
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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