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Thursday, 24 December 15
DRY BULKERS' VALUES ARE PLUNGING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
PanamaxDry bulk carriers’ values are falling across the board, as the fall of freight rates is taking its toll, as is to be expected. In fact, according to shipbrokers’ sources, over the course of the past couple of weeks, the drop in secondhand values has accelerated. In a recent note, Allied Shipbroking said that “despite some some resistance that had been noted in early November, a sudden appearance of several deals each noting a new low in its own right has pushed values down across the board”.

However, according to Allied’s George Lazaridis, Head of Market Research & Asset Valuations, “even at these new historical lows that are being noted in the market, buyers are still few and far between keeping a relatively sceptical stance on their option to offer. This has gotten to the extent that few are willing to offer at even lower numbers, indicating a fear that there is still room for further price drops in their mind and at the same time little in terms of market earnings to entice them to act under the current market”.

Lazaridis noted that “the main fatigue was caused by the surprising turn the freight market took within November, pushing the Baltic Dry Index to hit its lowest figure to date since its inception (although we must always stress that there is little comparison of the Index as its calculated to day with the original Baltic Index of the 1980’s). Hitting such a low point during a seasonal point in the year were we typically see better figures has made a big dent on sentiment, while many now fear of even worse conditions to be noted in the early part of 2016. As such the previous attitude by potential buyers in the market, seemingly looking to grab units and take advantage of the low asset prices has subsid-ed. It seems now that many are hoping to postpone taking action hoping to time the market at a point which benefits both on asset price as well as freight rate levels. With both these supporting a waiting stance rather than any hastily made action”.

Allied’s analyst noted that “in terms of reported deals this week, this prevailing downturn in the secondhand mar-ket has been greatly epitomised by deals such as that of the capesize “PIERRE LD” (170K dwt, blt 2005 S. Korea) which went for US$ 12.2m with her special survey and dry dock freshly passed. It is important to note that back in early November this vessel would be valued closer to US$ 18.6m, which is equivalent to a 34% drop within a couple of weeks. Similarly in the handysize segment we saw the sale of the two 2007 Japanese built vessels, namely “AMINE BULKER” and “SOFIE BULKER” both of which were reported to be sold at around US$ 6.8m in two separate deals”.

He added that “much of this is two little surprise to most who follow the market, as during the past month there had been a series of deals which would “get stuck” in the first sign of trouble. On the one had we still have ample supply of sale candidates circulating the market, but the main issue seems to be the approach taken by buyers. With fear pre-vailing in the market, it doesn’t take much to spook a potential buyer and push him to find a way to withdraw any offers he might have made. No-one can blame them of either choice, though it hardly seems as though there is much to lose at these price levels, especially when buying a modern vessel that could easily be considered as having at least 15 years of trading life left in it. As such it looks to be more about getting the “right deal” in place rather fear of a potentially high risk of loss at these levels”, Lazaridis concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News


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