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Wednesday, 23 December 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS MAKRINOS
 As we are heading towards the end of the year we could argue that most of those involved in the shipping industry share mixed feelings for 2015. The ones involved in the dry bulk sector and tanker sector participants are obviously the best example of this opposition, although the increasing orderbook in the latter sector might be the source of concerns in the future.
Hence, this year leaves us wondering who exactly the winners in the Dry Bulk sector were, if any. On the one side stand those who despite the market’s poor conditions went on acquiring vessels in the second hand market at heavily discounted rates compared to previous years’ levels, knowing that what lied ahead was a bad freight market that recently bottomed to its all-time low. On the other side stand those who decided to sell, for different reasons but most having to do with pressures exerted by the poor market. Those now have a certain cash flow and the possibility to either wait for a better market or even wait to purchase in the future at even lower levels, bearing of course the cost of losing current opportunities if these lower levels do not materialize. So in regards to the aforementioned question, of who the winner is the answer is fairly hard to give right now. It really depends on the strategy that each company and investor has set, baring always in mind that this is one of the most difficult and uncertain eras not only in regards to the dry bulk shipping market but pretty much in all those sectors that are affected by a dropping demand for commodities and consumption of goods.
Nevertheless, there are some market participants out there still being optimistic that during 2016 we might witness at least a slight improvement in Dry Bulk freight rates when compared to the unprecedented lows of this year. They support that a few factors can help with that. Oil prices should remain close to $40/bbl. or if increase they will do so to levels still “comfortable” for ship operators. Activity in the demolition market will also reach even higher levels (currently even mid to late ‘90s built bulkers are offered for demo). Fleet growth will also side with owners, as the remaining orderbook is smaller than the one in the previous years. These are not “hard” and favor the argument for acquiring a vessel now, as dwt supply and costs of operating a vessel seem to be well “in control” at least for next year.
On the other hand, there are those, the majority actually, who argues that the Dry Bulk market will continue to hover around its current low levels. They support that we need to see a number of things happening before the market improves, things not expected to take place in 2016 according to them. The average demolition age should decrease further and faster; they support that even vessels of just 15yrs old should start coming up more often as demo candidates, something that we haven't seen so far. In addition, a recovery in the steel industry accompanied by improvement in coal consumption should also take place. Their argument against the possibility of that happening is obviously the fact that coal imports mostly by China have slowed down and a rebound is not expected any time soon and that in regards to the steel industry almost every single analysis points to declining consumption next year as well.
Accurate forecasts are as rare as white Christmas here in Greece. Dry Bulk market participants will almost definitely have to show more patience in the months to come and try to remember that this is a market of big excitements and as most markets cyclical as well. You have bad times, followed by less bad times, followed by good times, followed by great times. So let’s ask ourselves, where are we now and where are we most probably heading next?
Panos Makrinos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 23 December 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSES FIRM
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery up $0.45 per ton (1.22%) month over month to US$ 37.20 per ton. The swap wa ...
Tuesday, 22 December 15
3800 GAR INDEX CLOSED AT US$ 22.03 PER TON; DOWN 0.15% W-O-W
COALspot.com: The 5000 GAR CS (i) coal index decline US$ 0.03 per ton (-0.07 %) week over week.
According to the CS (i) coal (system generated ...
Monday, 21 December 15
Q3' 2016 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED SLIGHTLY LOWER COMPARE TO Q1'16 CLOSING PRICE
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery up US$ 0.20 (0.48%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap is a ...
Sunday, 20 December 15
THE FREIGHT RATES FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA IS EXPECTED TO BE SOFT NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI facing all time low's this week. The bulk dry index closed at 477 points on 18 December 2015.
The cape index was als ...
Friday, 18 December 15
WHEN IS A MASTER ENTITLED TO REFUSE DAMAGED CARGO? A REMINDER - THE STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
A master’s authority to clause bills of lading issued by or on his behalf can sometimes become the cause of disagreeme ...
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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