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Friday, 18 December 15
CHINA GROWTH SHOCK TO HIT ENERGY, SHIPPING, STEEL MOST - FITCH
 Energy, shipping and steel would be the hardest-hit sectors in Asia-Pacific (APAC) in the event of a sharp slowdown in Chinese growth, says Fitch Ratings.
The sector outlooks for APAC steel and energy, and global shipping, are negative even under our current forecast expectations where China slows only gradually. Asian manufacturing and technology sectors would also be significantly affected, given the scale of Chinese demand and its position in the regional supply chain, said Fitch Ratings in its latest note.
Fitch's core view remains that China will not experience a 'hard landing', with GDP growth forecast to slow to 6.3% and 6% in 2016 and 2017, respectively. But some risks remain of a disorderly structural rebalancing, where growth slows more quickly than forecast. Fitch has assessed the impact of a hypothetical scenario in which China's economy were to experience a rapid and substantial deceleration over a three-year period to end-2018, with shocks to both investment and consumption. Under this scenario, Chinese GDP growth would fall to an average of 2.3% per annum from 2016-2018.
Fitch further noted that, a sudden slowdown in China would act as a significant drag on global growth. APAC countries with the most extensive trade and investment connections with China would be the most exposed, and include Hong Kong, Singapore, Korea, Taiwan and Japan. Global commodity prices would stay lower for longer, and capital investment and export and trade-linked sectors would face the most significant effects on financial performance and credit profiles.
APAC manufacturers of heavy equipment and machinery, and dry-bulk shipping companies, would suffer as Chinese demand and investment growth - and by extension, regional trade - would fall rapidly. Chemicals, ores and minerals are also among the largest categories of exports to China from the APAC region. Consumer product manufacturers such as office and telecom equipment supplies would also be exposed.
According to Fitch, if Chinese consumer demand growth were to fall significantly under this scenario, then domestic technology firms would also experience pressure on revenues and margins. Furthermore, the broad-based effects on global demand from China's slowdown would also weigh on regional technology firms, given China's heavily integrated position in the APAC supply chain.
China imports large volumes of electronic components from the APAC region and exports finished products. If global consumer demand growth were to fall significantly, then price competition among producers would also be likely to rise, Fitch concluded.
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Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dw ...
Tuesday, 10 November 15
SELF-HEATING OF COAL HAS EMPHASISED THE IMPORTANCE OF CHECKING THE ACCURACY OF SHIPPER'S DECLARATIONS - GARD
Recent incidents involving self-heating of coal has emphasised the importance of checking the accuracy of shipper’s declarations for all type ...
Tuesday, 10 November 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP SLIDES CONTINUE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $3.55 per ton (8.50%) month over month to US$ 38.20 per ton. The swap ...
Monday, 09 November 15
BUNKER PRICES TO KEEP SLIDING THIS WEEK, EXPERT SAYS - MARINE BUNKER EXCHANGE
The oil price volatility has continued this week. Two dollars up one day and the next day two dollars down. The oil market has been trading on the ...
Monday, 09 November 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA THERMAL COAL SWAP FOR Q3' 16 CONTRACT DECLINED US$ 4 PER TON
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 4.35 (9.03 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity swa ...
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- Parliament of New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Planning Commission, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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