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Thursday, 17 December 15
THE LOW DEMAND AND EXCESS COAL OUTPUT, KEEP THE FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS UNDER PRESSURE
coal excavatorCOALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q1 2016 rose month on month and decline slightly week over week. For the week ended December 11, 2015, FOB Indonesia coal swap price came in at $36.85 per ton, down from $37.17 per ton at the end of the previous week.

Indonesian thermal coal is used mainly for electricity generation.

The Q1 2016 deliver swap price rose US$ 0.55 per ton to 36.85 a ton for the week ended December 11 compared to the last month’s US$ 36.30 per ton. However, the direction of the overall market was still heading to South.

The low demand and excess coal output kept the coal prices under pressure in recent years. While the natural gas has also become a strong competitor against coal.

FOB Indonesia coal swap
According to this past Friday’s SGX data, sub-bit FOB Indonesia coal swap (average) for Q2 2016 delivery was also dropped $0.15 (0.41%) per ton week over week and rose slightly month over month.

The SGX's data further shows that, FOB Indonesia coal swap for Q3 2016 delivery lost US$ 0.20 (-0.54%) per ton week over week to US$ 36.50 per MT.

Sub-bit FOB Indonesia coal swap, as per SGX's data, particularly for Q1,Q2 and Q3 2016 deliveries declined week on week and rose month over month.

SGX Asia Clear OTC Sub-Bit Indonesian coal for Q1 2016 delivery swap closed US$ 0.35 (0.95%) higher compared to average Q3 2016 delivery price of US$ 36.50 on 11 December 2015.

In the meantime, Q3 delivery price slightly ( US$ 0.05/ton) lower compared to Q2 closing price. As of 11 December, the swap trend indicates that, Q3’16 delivery price was lower compared to H1’16 prices.

We see a four-year-long slide in coal prices continuing in 2016, even though the slide is not significant as we seen in the past due to various reason including, low demand, high output, competition from other resources. The expected production levels of coal in 2016 are still above than the actual demand, the coal prices may stay persistently low in 2016.

The Indonesian coal benchmark price fell 57.88 percent since February 2011, because of weak demand, and rising supply.

The crude oil market was sustained high price levels during 2011, the spot price of Brent averaged $111.26 per barrel during 2011. The current spot price of Brent price fell 66.57% compared to 2011 levels.

The current Natural-gas prices also dropped to the lowest level since 1999, as concerns about weak demand continued to weigh on the market.

The coal price recovery is hands of coal producing countries and not in hands of coal consuming countries.
Data Source: SGX

The above report is subject to SGX’s and COALspot.com’s disclaimer clauses. The DSP above are reported on a best-effort basis SGX’s daily report and are not guaranteed to be accurate or error free. Readers are advised to refer to the official DSP available through the clearing members.


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