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Friday, 04 December 15
MINING OUTLOOK WEAKENS FURTHER ON FALLING CHINESE DEMAND - FITCH
FitchCOALspot.com: Fitch Ratings' outlook for the global mining sector in 2016 is firmly negative, reflecting our view that Chinese demand will continue to weaken in the coming year and that commodities will remain deeply unpopular with investors.

According to Fitch, the slowdown in Chinese demand has already created substantial oversupply in some commodities, including iron ore and aluminium, and we expect this trend to continue in 2016 as the Chinese economy undergoes a gradual deleveraging and transition from investment to consumer-led growth. Average prices for these two commodities are therefore likely to be lower in 2016, as are prices for copper and zinc. Nickel could prove an exception to the trend, due to mine closures and falling Chinese nickel pig iron production, but this is far from certain.

Most mining companies now have weak credit profiles for their current rating, and this is reflected in the fact that most large international mining companies are on Negative Outlook or Rating Watch Negative.

" We expect companies to continue to focus on cost control and short-term liquidity management in 2016. But they will find it harder to use cost cuts to aid debt reduction because the falling diesel prices and beneficial exchange rate moves that helped them in 2015 are unlikely to be repeated. Big reductions in capex budgets are similarly largely complete' Says Fitch. 
 
"This means more mining companies are likely to come under increasing pressure to cut their dividends to boost free cash flow in 2016 following relatively modest reductions in shareholder returns so far, Fitch concluded.
 
For more information on our expectations for the sector, see the report "2016 Outlook: Global Mining" available at www.fitchratings.com


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