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Wednesday, 25 November 15
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE VASTARDIS
Intermodal LogoWe have already noticed obvious signs of activity mainly West of Suez, which are currently driving the clean MR market to higher levels. Over the past week both the Med and Black Sea regions have been quite active, with handy owners keeping the sentiment positive due to replacement business along with fresh enquiries that are currently assessed at w132 levels bss 30kmt  however with 2.5 ws points ex Black Sea cargoes.

The Continent market on the other hand , despite being at w137 levels two weeks ago for UKCont/USAC bss 37kmt, has eventually lost its strength and now we assess it at below w120 levels. The sentiment however is expected to improve due to fresh cargoes in the market although there is a possibility that the US upcoming Thanksgiving holiday could negatively affect the market. In the meantime, USG rates have again rallied and both the short-haul voyage and southbound destination to Brazil or Argentina seem steady and optimistic.

Furthermore, it should be noted that the market seems to cooling down following two strong weeks which begs the question whether demand will stay strong in the following days. Things over at the MEG Clean MR market have at the same time remained at quite decent levels with MEG/UKCont assessed at USD low 1m showing no significant change from last week.

As far as the Far East market is concerned, we can say that it remains slow with backhaul cargos ex N. Asia to SE. Asia at USD high300k-low400k levels and, seeing that arbitrages from the far east to western destinations remain closed, we are not very optimistic that market will recover any time soon.

Moving on to LR1/2 tonnage, the news coming from the MEG and Far East markets have not been exciting, as over the past weeks charterers pushed rates considerably down, with the MEG/Japan run bss75kmt Naphtha and the MEG/Japan bss55ktons Naphtha dropping to WS69 and WS82 respectively, while deliveries to UKCont on LR2 bss90kmt concluded over the last week at USD high 1m levels and for LR1 bss 60kmt at USD mid1m levels respectively.

There have only been a few deals that have been concluded over the past week, and with a lack of enquiries from charterers both the LR1 and LR2 segments have remained stably soft. It seems like the only viable solution for owners is to ballast to the West since there is no sign of improvement in the Eastern market yet. Having said that Western /LR2 tonnage list continuing thinning and owners confidence consequently improving.

Currently we assess for LR1 ARA/WAF about w130 levels and a continued interest in moving cargoes from the West to the East against a very tight LR2 tonnage list is pushing charterers to look smaller sizes to a larger degree and eventually keep sentiment optimistic.

In conclusion, as far as the eastern market is concerned, our expectations remain fairly low. Despite the fact that people have already returned to  their desks from the Dubai week, the tonnage list is still big enough and this remains a charterer’s market. On the other hand with a tight tonnage list/uncertain western positions and due to seasonality, we believe that the western market will continue to slowly but steadily improve
By George Vastardis
Tanker Chartering Broker - CPP Desk 

Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations

Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima


Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.

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