We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Monday, 23 November 15
DRY BULK MARKET: NET FLEET GROWTH IS SLOWING DOWN, AS SHIP OWNERS ARE LOOKING FOR WAYS TO ALLEVIATING MARKET MELTDOWN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 The dry bulk market has been in “meltdown” mode for a few weeks now, unable to find support and avoid the fall in historical lows. As such, it’s worth taking a closer look at the factors which can support rates in the future. In a recent analysis, dry bulk ship owner Precious Shipping, said that “the dry bulk sector is chronically over-supplied and will remain so over next few years. However let’s not forget that global seaborne trade is still growing steadily from a historical perspective. But the market needs time to realign supply with demand. In the meantime we need to manage our expectations and keep our faith in the industry. Shipping is prone to surprises and things can change pretty quickly”.
For instance, in terms of future supply developments, the world bulker fleet growth has slowed down considerably over the course of the past year. According to Precious Shipping’s analysis, “we started 2015 with 770.34 MDWT and have increased to 781.74 MDWT by the end of Q3 for a 1.48% net fleet growth. A further 5.76% (44.40 MDWT) is scheduled for delivery in the balance of 2015 and another 8.73% (67.23 MDWT) scheduled for delivery in 2016. If we were to apply a slippage factor of 40% to these scheduled deliveries and further assume that scrapping reaches 36 MDWT per annum we would be left with a net fleet growth of 3.22% (795.12 MDWT) in 2015 and another 1.89% (810.12 MDWT) in 2016. Net fleet growth is increasing, but marginally, compared to the recent past”, said Precious.
The ship owner added though that “the situation in China is partially obscuring a real change that has taken place in the capesize market (which has been driven by the capesize fleet shrinking while iron ore production from the major miners is increasing). Many had expected Q4 strength in the capesize market, but the strength has begun in July. This is real change, and one that is become somewhat obscured due to panic over Chinese equity prices”. Precious then described a scenario, which, so far has failed to materialize. It has said that “going forward, we remain bullish for capesize rates for Q3 2015 and Q4 2015. Iron ore exports from major miners will rise during the upcoming months. If China is still buying the iron ore (which is very likely), capesize availability is likely to see upcoming periods in H2 where vessel availability is much tighter and this is what drives freight rates”.
Demand-wise, Precious wondered if “Peak Coal” is a reality in China? According to the owner, “China is the world’s largest consumer of coal, accounting for nearly half of global demand. The leading source of domestic demand is naturally power generation, which accounts for about two-thirds of coal consumption in the country. With air pollution and environmental degradation becoming increasingly acute social emergencies, significant effort and investment is being made by the government to try to reduce the country’s reliance on fossil fuels. Domestic coal mining has itself been at the center of a storm. This is a very fragmented industry, with an appalling environmental and safety record, and recently also in terrible financial shape as most mines are losing money. There seems to be very little incentive to support the industry, except in an attempt to save jobs in areas of the country where few alternatives exist. China’s domestic coal output has been essentially flat in 2013, and even declined marginally in 2014 and in the first half of this year. Therefore, there could actually still be hope for imports to rebound. Never say, never”.
Analyzing China’s economic transition, Precious noted that “averaging almost 10% per year in the thirty years from 1978 to 2008 the pace of China’s growth is in the process of slowing to probably half that, albeit on a substantially larger base. China’s gradual transition from investment-led to consumer-based growth is necessitated by the fact that it no longer gets a reasonable return from every dollar invested at home. It has chronic industrial and manufacturing overcapacity that has been built up to support jobs, jobs that require ever higher wages. Now that excess production, in the context of weak domestic and overseas demand, is causing falling prices and negative profit margins. The solution is a grand plan to rebuild the old Silk Road by taking advantage of absurdly low borrowing costs to invest in other people’s infrastructure. The project was first mentioned in 2013 but gained momentum in March as Chinese growth was noticeably decelerating. China’s surplus capital, labour and productive capacity can be mobilised to get a better investment return across a vast footprint that includes southeast Asia, the Subcontinent, the Middle East, central Asia and eastern Europe and well over 3 billion people. Chinese Premier Li Keqiang speaking at the World Economic Forum in Dalian said China is on track to meet all its economic targets for this year despite fears of a deepening slowdown in the world’s second largest economy. China would take more steps to boost domestic demand and implement more policies to lift imports, he said”.
In the meantime, “2015 is turning out to be another challenging year for the Chinese steel industry. However, we believe this to be cyclical rather than structural, and a recovery is expected next year, in terms of both steel demand and ore imports. We are still far from ‘peak steel’. China’s steel use per capita, at 515 kg, is still modest for a country at this stage of development. The USA, Japan and Germany peaked at well over 700 kg in the 1970s and 1980s. China is flooding the world with cheap steel at an unprecedented rate and keeping some shipping lanes busy that would otherwise be quiet. For the first seven months of the year, exports were up 27% to 62.13 MMT and could reach 111 MMT by the end of the year, according to forecasts from commodities researchers at Macquarie. Grain imports into China continue to forge ahead and at the 8 month point are up 10.8 MMT (19%) to 66.3 MMT y-o-y. Soyabean imports stand at 52.4 MMT up nearly 5 MMT, whilst barley imports have nearly trebled to 7.4 MMT; corn imports also more than doubled to 4.4 MMT and wheat imports are slightly lower at 2 MMT. This significant increase in grain imports contrasts to that of coal where imports into China have declined by 60 MMT (-32%) y-o-y whilst iron ore imports have also registered a modest decrease of 1.4 MMT (-0.2%) y-o-y”.
Additionally, “despite the macroeconomic numbers, Chinese Iron Ore imports reached 699.43 MMT by end September for an annualized total import of 932.57 MMT or almost identical to the 933.11 MMT in 2014. Chinese Steel production reached 606.73 MMT by end September for an annualized total of 808.97 MMT or a marginal decrease of 0.53% compared to the 813.30 MMT in 2014. Chinese Steel exports reached 73 MMT by end September for an annualized total of 97.33 MMT or an increase of 3.77% compared to the 93.79 MMT in 2014. Coal imports into China reached 156.47 MMT by end September for an annualized total of 208.63 MMT or a decrease of 28.46% over the 291.63 MMT imported in 2014. In a country that currently produces and consumes just under 4.0 BMT of Coal per annum even a small change in their Coal requirements via imports could have a dramatic impact on the dry bulk freight markets”, Precious Shipping concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Friday, 28 August 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. FOR THE WEEK ENDING AUGUST 22 ROSE FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 18.5 million shor ...
Friday, 28 August 15
BANPU STRENGTHENS GROWTH PLAN
Coal Business: Asia-Pacific Synergies Increase Competitiveness for Premium Export Market.
Banpu Public Company Limited (BANPU) strengthens its ...
Thursday, 27 August 15
RATES FOR CAPES REMAINED ON A FREE FALL LAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: Keeping everyone on their toes with the volatility seen in August, the Dry Bulk market undoubtedly remains a steady provider of chall ...
Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of th ...
Wednesday, 26 August 15
2Q'16 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FALLS NEARLY 4.76 PER CENT M-O-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The 4Q swap was declined $ 2.20 (-5.13%) p ...
|
|
|
Showing 2846 to 2850 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Coal Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
|
| |
| |
|
