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Friday, 20 November 15
CHANGING CRUDE SUPPLY TRENDS MAY HELP EUROPEAN REFINERS - FITCH RATINGS
 COALspot.com: Changes in global oil supply trends, including high Russian production, the expected renewal of Iranian heavy crude exports and the pressure on US shale oil output, may benefit European refiners, Fitch Ratings says. These trends could support a wider price differential between the Brent and Urals benchmarks and a narrower differential between Brent and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmark, reducing the competitive advantage US refiners have over their European rivals.
The Brent-Urals differential rose above USD3.5/bbl in October from USD1-USD2/bbl earlier this year. The widening gap reflects higher availability of Russian crude in the Baltic Sea region as production in Russia reached post-Soviet highs. Saudi crude oil deliveries to Polski Koncern Naftowy Orlen (PKN) and Preem in early November might have also contributed to the widening Urals discount.
Renewed supplies of predominantly lower quality Iranian crude following the expected sanctions relief in 2016 should result in greater competition between sour crude oil types. This is likely to support further widening of the Brent-Urals differential, benefitting Central European and some Mediterranean refiners.
We believe that MOL Hungarian Oil and Gas and PKN are best placed in our portfolio to benefit as they primarily use Russian crude oil in their refineries. Tupras, with its proximity to the Bosphorus strait, has access to a wide variety of crude types and will likely benefit from both the wider Brent-Urals differential and improved access and pricing of Iranian crude.
Mediterranean refiners such as Tupras were obliged to reduce purchases of favourably priced Iranian crude when sanctions against Iran were introduced in 2012. Once the sanctions are lifted, we expect a gradual ramp-up in Iranian crude output starting from the second half of 2016. This suggests widening Brent-Iranian oil differentials will be more pronounced from 2017.
Crude oil constitutes the largest share of refineries' costs and the ability to source crude at lower prices therefore has a significant effect on profitability and competitiveness. Western European refiners are better placed to use lighter Brent oil, while CEE companies have traditionally relied on heavier Russian crude.
In recent years, the competition from the US refineries in Europe intensified as they had access to oil at a significant discount to Brent. However the differential between WTI and Brent crude has now fallen to around USD2.5/bbl from USD8-USD15/bbl between September 2013 and June 2014 when US imports were at their peak. After some delay US shale oil supply has fallen and we expect the decline to be more pronounced from next year contributing to a narrower differential to Brent in the medium term.
Narrower WTI-Brent differentials will not be enough to entirely wipe out the competitive advantage of the US refiners that also benefit from low natural gas prices. But we think the narrower differential coupled with lower natural gas prices in Europe and dollar appreciation against the euro will improve competitiveness of European refiners.
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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