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Thursday, 19 November 15
CHINA STEEL PRODUCTION CAPACITY TO PEAK IN 2016 - FITCH RATINGS
 COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings today says that China's steel production capacity is likely to peak in 2016, with capacity elimination over the next five years likely to outpace additions.
In the Q&A below, Hong Kong-based Laura Zhai and Shanghai-based Charles Li of Fitch's Industrial Team, discuss the factors driving their forecasts for China's steel production, exports and consumption.
Q. Chinese steel production capacity continues to increase despite weak demand; when will capacity peak?
Fitch expects Chinese steel production capacity to increase to about 1.17 billion tonnes in 2015 from 1.15 billion in 2014. The increase in 2015 includes about 30 million tonnes of new capacity, which is partly offset by estimated capacity shutdown of 10 million tonnes. Fitch expects annual new capacity of around 16 million tonnes to be added in 2016 and 2017, although this will be offset by shutdowns of plants with total capacity of 75 million-85 million tonnes over the next five years. This will result in capacity peaking in 2016.
Fitch believes that future capacity elimination in China will mainly be driven by market forces rather regulations. Most of the regulatory measures implemented have already forced out smaller players and the plants that remain in operation are larger in comparison and comply with existing policies. Stricter environment standards could also cause financially weak steel producers to shut down because they will not be able to afford the required investments.
Q. China's apparent steel consumption declined in 2014 for the first time in 20 years, and the decrease has extended into 2015. What is Fitch's expectation for steel consumption for 2016 and after?
The decline in China's apparent steel consumption (sum of production and imports, less exports) was mostly due to slower fixed-asset investment (FAI) growth and de-stocking in the steel industry.
China's FAI rose by 10.2% in 10M15, slower than the 15.9% in 10M14, due to deceleration in activity in the manufacturing and property sectors, which accounted for 33% and 23%, respectively of FAI in China in 10M15. The slowdown in construction activity led to a collapse in steel prices. At the same time, steelmakers stepped up sales of their stocks. De-stocking is not captured in apparent consumption, contributing to an understatement of the apparent consumption figure.
Fitch expects FAI growth to pick up slightly in 2Q-3Q16, driven by real-estate construction activities, before reverting to a lower level of normalised growth 12-18 months later. Fitch believes that Chinese apparent consumption of steel will remain flat in the next few years now that de-stocking has ended, at about 760 million tonnes a year. Any substantial negative or positive surprises in growth rates are likely to be driven by swings in real-estate construction activities.
Q. What is Fitch's expectation for Chinese steel exports in the long term?
Exports of steel reached 93.8 million tonnes in 2014, but are likely to return to around 70 million-80 million tonnes a year in the long term. China's exports comprise product sales overseas and the transfer of production capacity overseas, which is known as capacity export in China, to alleviate overcapacity in China.
In the short term, Fitch expects Chinese steel producers to continue to enjoy cost advantages stemming from further depreciation in the Chinese yuan and lower material prices, which will help drive exports.
Over the long term, exports will be mainly driven by China's One Belt One Road plan, where Chinese funding for the construction of a network of transport, energy, and telecommunications infrastructure extending across Asia to Europe and East Africa will create demand for either Chinese steel products or Chinese-constructed production capacities abroad, as a means to alleviate current overcapacity issues in China. The implementation of this policy, though, will depend on domestic government funding and more concrete policy guidelines.
Q. What are the key challenges for Chinese steel producers amid oversupply and slack demand in the market?
Fitch believes that Chinese producers will need to invest in R&D to facilitate manufacturing of higher-value-added products. They will also be faced with more stringent environmental regulations, such as lower limits on sulphur dioxide emission (a major by-product of steel making). Meeting these new standards would require substantial investment with no significant benefit to EBITDA, which may reduce profitability for some steel manufacturers.
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Wednesday, 12 June 24
CHINA ACCOUNTS FOR 16.3% OF AUSTRALIA'S COAL EXPORTS, FOLLOWED BY INDIA 14.4% - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels says Banchero Costa in its latest report.
...
Wednesday, 12 June 24
LNG NEWBUILDING VALUES AT RECORD HIGH: 78 NEWBUILD ORDERS PLACED IN 2024, DOUBLING 2023 - VESON NAUTICAL
The number of LNG newbuilding orders have more than doubled from the same period last year where 34 orders were placed, compared to 78 in the first ...
Monday, 10 June 24
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS RISE 11% ON LOWER DOMESTIC OUTPUT - REUTERS
China’s imports of coal rose 11% in May from a year earlier, customs data and Reuters records showed on Friday, as lower domestic output this ...
Tuesday, 04 June 24
HOW DO WESTERN SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA IMPACT THE GLOBAL METALS, MINING AND COAL MARKETS - WOOD MACKENZIE
The geopolitical landscape for Russia, as a major supplier of various commodities, has undergone a dramatic transformation since the invasion of Uk ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CASE STUDY: DANGERS OF COAL CARGO - SKULD
Recently, a bulk cargo vessel carrying coal from South Africa to Singapore suffered a fatal accident, resulting in the deaths of three crew members ...
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Showing 21 to 25 news of total 6871 |
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- White Energy Company Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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