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Thursday, 19 November 15
CHINA STEEL PRODUCTION CAPACITY TO PEAK IN 2016 - FITCH RATINGS
 COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings today says that China's steel production capacity is likely to peak in 2016, with capacity elimination over the next five years likely to outpace additions.
In the Q&A below, Hong Kong-based Laura Zhai and Shanghai-based Charles Li of Fitch's Industrial Team, discuss the factors driving their forecasts for China's steel production, exports and consumption.
Q. Chinese steel production capacity continues to increase despite weak demand; when will capacity peak?
Fitch expects Chinese steel production capacity to increase to about 1.17 billion tonnes in 2015 from 1.15 billion in 2014. The increase in 2015 includes about 30 million tonnes of new capacity, which is partly offset by estimated capacity shutdown of 10 million tonnes. Fitch expects annual new capacity of around 16 million tonnes to be added in 2016 and 2017, although this will be offset by shutdowns of plants with total capacity of 75 million-85 million tonnes over the next five years. This will result in capacity peaking in 2016.
Fitch believes that future capacity elimination in China will mainly be driven by market forces rather regulations. Most of the regulatory measures implemented have already forced out smaller players and the plants that remain in operation are larger in comparison and comply with existing policies. Stricter environment standards could also cause financially weak steel producers to shut down because they will not be able to afford the required investments.
Q. China's apparent steel consumption declined in 2014 for the first time in 20 years, and the decrease has extended into 2015. What is Fitch's expectation for steel consumption for 2016 and after?
The decline in China's apparent steel consumption (sum of production and imports, less exports) was mostly due to slower fixed-asset investment (FAI) growth and de-stocking in the steel industry.
China's FAI rose by 10.2% in 10M15, slower than the 15.9% in 10M14, due to deceleration in activity in the manufacturing and property sectors, which accounted for 33% and 23%, respectively of FAI in China in 10M15. The slowdown in construction activity led to a collapse in steel prices. At the same time, steelmakers stepped up sales of their stocks. De-stocking is not captured in apparent consumption, contributing to an understatement of the apparent consumption figure.
Fitch expects FAI growth to pick up slightly in 2Q-3Q16, driven by real-estate construction activities, before reverting to a lower level of normalised growth 12-18 months later. Fitch believes that Chinese apparent consumption of steel will remain flat in the next few years now that de-stocking has ended, at about 760 million tonnes a year. Any substantial negative or positive surprises in growth rates are likely to be driven by swings in real-estate construction activities.
Q. What is Fitch's expectation for Chinese steel exports in the long term?
Exports of steel reached 93.8 million tonnes in 2014, but are likely to return to around 70 million-80 million tonnes a year in the long term. China's exports comprise product sales overseas and the transfer of production capacity overseas, which is known as capacity export in China, to alleviate overcapacity in China.
In the short term, Fitch expects Chinese steel producers to continue to enjoy cost advantages stemming from further depreciation in the Chinese yuan and lower material prices, which will help drive exports.
Over the long term, exports will be mainly driven by China's One Belt One Road plan, where Chinese funding for the construction of a network of transport, energy, and telecommunications infrastructure extending across Asia to Europe and East Africa will create demand for either Chinese steel products or Chinese-constructed production capacities abroad, as a means to alleviate current overcapacity issues in China. The implementation of this policy, though, will depend on domestic government funding and more concrete policy guidelines.
Q. What are the key challenges for Chinese steel producers amid oversupply and slack demand in the market?
Fitch believes that Chinese producers will need to invest in R&D to facilitate manufacturing of higher-value-added products. They will also be faced with more stringent environmental regulations, such as lower limits on sulphur dioxide emission (a major by-product of steel making). Meeting these new standards would require substantial investment with no significant benefit to EBITDA, which may reduce profitability for some steel manufacturers.
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Wednesday, 12 June 24
CHINA ACCOUNTS FOR 16.3% OF AUSTRALIA'S COAL EXPORTS, FOLLOWED BY INDIA 14.4% - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels says Banchero Costa in its latest report.
...
Wednesday, 12 June 24
LNG NEWBUILDING VALUES AT RECORD HIGH: 78 NEWBUILD ORDERS PLACED IN 2024, DOUBLING 2023 - VESON NAUTICAL
The number of LNG newbuilding orders have more than doubled from the same period last year where 34 orders were placed, compared to 78 in the first ...
Monday, 10 June 24
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS RISE 11% ON LOWER DOMESTIC OUTPUT - REUTERS
China’s imports of coal rose 11% in May from a year earlier, customs data and Reuters records showed on Friday, as lower domestic output this ...
Tuesday, 04 June 24
HOW DO WESTERN SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA IMPACT THE GLOBAL METALS, MINING AND COAL MARKETS - WOOD MACKENZIE
The geopolitical landscape for Russia, as a major supplier of various commodities, has undergone a dramatic transformation since the invasion of Uk ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CASE STUDY: DANGERS OF COAL CARGO - SKULD
Recently, a bulk cargo vessel carrying coal from South Africa to Singapore suffered a fatal accident, resulting in the deaths of three crew members ...
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Showing 21 to 25 news of total 6871 |
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- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PTC India Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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