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Monday, 16 November 15
CLARKSEA INDEX COMPETITION: IS IT ALL IN THE TIMING? - CLARKSONS
 Readers of the Shipping Intelligence Weekly are invited each year to predict the value of the ClarkSea Index one year ahead in the first week of November. The predictions are always interesting, giving a good idea of how market watchers see the market developing. Furthermore, in many years the range of estimates has provided an insight into the optimistic nature of the participants.
Looking On The Bright Side?
The 2015 ClarkSea Index competition generated what initially appears to be a fairly bullish set of predictions compared to the actual value of $13,070/day on 6th November 2015. The average of 2015-11-13_upload_4782285_SIW 1197the forecasts stood at $15,429/day, 18% above the actual index on the date in question, and around 80% of the entries exceeded the actual value. This suggests that participants were willing to look on the bright side, thinking that the markets might improve from the 2014 average of $11,743/day. But given the highly disappointing outcome in some sectors this year, were the predictions in reality way too positive?
A Mixed Bag Or Worse?
Well, the uptick in the ClarkSea Index in the third quarter of 2015 might help put this in perspective. The index exceeded $18,000/day in July, bolstered by ongoing strong earnings in the tanker and LPG sectors, and a slight increase in earnings in the bulkcarrier sector compared to the preceding months (although average bulker earnings were still at relatively low levels). If the index had remained at around the $18,000/day level recorded in July, just 18% of the competition entries would have ‘overestimated’ compared to the 80% based on the actual outcome.
The reality is that few might have guessed how the index developed as the year progressed. As the graph shows, the index recorded a notable increase in Q4 2014. In 2015, there was a similar rise in the third quarter, but the index has come off significantly since the peak of $18,383/day recorded in mid-July. The fall has largely been driven by weaker tanker earnings, as well as a return to lower bulker earnings and declining gas and, in particular, containership earnings.
Timing Can Be Everything
Moreover, the year to date average of the ClarkSea Index is up 29% y-o-y, possibly further justification for some of the optimism amongst the forecasters. In the first 45 weeks of the year, the ClarkSea Index averaged $14,610/day, just 5% below the average of the predictions received; 44% of guesses were in the $13,000-15,999/day range. So perhaps this optimism was not as misplaced as it appears at first glance. But timing is everything, and the participants who envisaged an improvement in the market failed to predict that the upside wouldn’t last.
We Still Have A Winner!
So, the progress of the ClarkSea Index has meant that the vast majority of predictions were below the actual value on 6th November. So maybe it doesn’t pay to be optimistic
Whether the case, every competition has a winner, and this year the winner was just $18 away from the actual outcome. Congratulations to Mr Jeffry Permana of PT Andhika Lines with a forecast of $13,052/day. Have a nice day Jeffry, your champagne is on its way.
Source: Clarksons
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Tuesday, 17 November 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS FALL: Q1'16 SLID 11.45% M-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $4.75 per ton (11.45%) month over month to US$ 36.75 per ton. The swap ...
Monday, 16 November 15
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 1.295 MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR Q1 - Q2'16
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender for 1,295,000 Metric Tons (MT) of minimum 4,600 kc ...
Monday, 16 November 15
SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS DECLINE CONTINUES THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery declined US$ 6.05 (12.59%) per ton month over month.
A commodity swa ...
Monday, 16 November 15
DRY BULK MARKET: Q1' 2016 SHAPING UP TO BE A ' DISASTROUS' ONE OF PROJECTED LOWER IRON ORE IMPORTS FROM CHINA
Over the course of the past year or so, it’s been the drop of coal imports from China, which has had a detrimental effect on the course of dr ...
Friday, 13 November 15
WEAK CHINA POWER DEMAND DAMPENS COAL CONSUMPTION - FITCH
The weak growth in China's electricity consumption in 2015, together with increasing non-thermal power generation capacity are exerting more pr ...
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Showing 2711 to 2715 news of total 6871 |
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Planning Commission, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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