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Wednesday, 04 November 15
MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER THOMAS WHITTY
 Four companies dominate global iron ore production, namely; BHP Billiton, Vale, Rio Tinto, and Fortescue Metals Group. Together these companies control more than 70 percent of the seaborne iron ore market.
The price of iron ore edged to $US49.95/ ton on Wednesday, nearing a four-month low but still the two major producers in Australia and Brazil have been following through with their longstanding plans to increase production. The low iron ore price also comes as China’s official forecaster warned of a 20% fall in Chinese steel consumption over the next 15 years, as Beijing accelerates the shutdown of outdated and loss-making factories.
Rio Tinto in Australia and Vale in Brazil, are still ramping up production. For the first nine-months of 2015, Vale’s production overall is around 8 million metric tons higher than Rio Tinto’s at 248 million metric tons, while Vale’s shipments are just over 3 million metric tons higher.
Of course Australian miners still have an advantage in delivered costs to China, the main importer for iron ore. For example, Capesizes hauling the commodity from Brazil to China last week saw rates around $12/ton for the Tubarao/Qingdao route, while from Rio Tinto’s Dampier terminal in Western Australian, freight rates were slightly in excess of $5.10/ton.
It is quite interesting to see that current iron ore prices aren’t worrying Rio Tinto. Their CEO, Andrew Harding, said he’s not losing sleep, because the business line, like the miner itself, is in for the long haul. He reasons that populations will continue to grow and develop, especially in Asia and iron ore will be needed to serve their needs. In September, Rio Tinto said its modelling showed that the world would need three billion tons of iron ore by 2030.
On the other side of the world, Vale is also quite confident in their iron ore division after releasing their third quarter results for 2015. Their highlight is the significant cost cutting during this period, which made Vale, the company with the lowest production cost/ton in the entire sector, reach an unprecedented cost level of $ 12.7/ton of iron ore. They are trailing faster growth compared to Australian majors, who this year posted stronger increases to volumes from new capacity ramp-ups.
This is an oversupplied market that is obviously affected by the shrinking Chinese steel demand. On the other hand, oversupplied ore trade also creates opportunities for the large players, since it means that certain high-cost producers will struggle to survive. Some iron ore mines, such as those in Canada, China and Africa, have already buckled under the pressure.
Nevertheless, producers with operating costs that are far below current iron ore prices are very well-positioned to take market share in the long term. Now if several high-cost producers exit the industry, it would be quite difficult for them to re-commence operations.
Over the long term, the low-cost iron mines could potentially fill the gap that remains after smaller companies exit the market. The gain in market share will likely increase margins, operating cash flow and profits. Hopefully this could also change the dynamics in the market and positively affect the demand for seaborne trade.
By Christopher Thomas Whitty
Marketing Manager, Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 11 November 15
Q3' 16 RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP LOST 15.47% SINCE 6 AUGUST; 18.65% SINCE 6 MAY
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1’ 2016 declined week over week and month over month.
The Q1’ 2016 &nb ...
Wednesday, 11 November 15
VESSEL VALUES ARE DOWN BY AT LEAST 20% SINCE MID-AUGUST - INTERMODAL
I had promised not to spend another broker’s insight focusing on the dry bulk side. However, the sale of the M/V Churchill Bulker (179,362 dw ...
Tuesday, 10 November 15
SELF-HEATING OF COAL HAS EMPHASISED THE IMPORTANCE OF CHECKING THE ACCURACY OF SHIPPER'S DECLARATIONS - GARD
Recent incidents involving self-heating of coal has emphasised the importance of checking the accuracy of shipper’s declarations for all type ...
Tuesday, 10 November 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP SLIDES CONTINUE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2016 delivery slid $3.55 per ton (8.50%) month over month to US$ 38.20 per ton. The swap ...
Monday, 09 November 15
BUNKER PRICES TO KEEP SLIDING THIS WEEK, EXPERT SAYS - MARINE BUNKER EXCHANGE
The oil price volatility has continued this week. Two dollars up one day and the next day two dollars down. The oil market has been trading on the ...
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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