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Tuesday, 03 November 15
EU OIL MAJORS FACE FURTHER EARNINGS DECLINE IN Q415 - FITCH RATINGS
 The sharp drop in major European oil companies' third-quarter profits is likely to be extended in the fourth quarter as refining margins, which had cushioned some of the blow from low oil prices, have fallen steeply, Fitch Ratings says.
According to Fitch, with little prospect of a near-term oil-price recovery and refining margins likely to remain thin, companies' ability to stabilize or even grow profits in 2016 will depend on how quickly cost-cutting measures and cost deflation in the supply chain feed through to the bottom line.
Royal Dutch Shell, Total, BP, Eni and BG all reported 3Q15 results last week. On average, their 3Q15 EBITDA fell by 26% compared with 2Q15, and cash flow from operations by 30%. The main reason was lower oil prices as Brent slid 19% from an average USD63/bbl in 2Q15 to USD51/bbl in 3Q15. The majors' 9M15 EBITDA dropped 39%, and cash from operations fell 38%, as Brent plummeted by 48%, from an average of USD107/bbl in 9M14 to USD56 in 9M15.
4Q15 may be even more painful for integrated companies as refining margins have fallen since the middle of the third quarter, which is likely to drag on profits in their downstream operations. In October, Brent Crack Rotterdam Refinery Margin, as calculated by Thomson Reuters, averaged USD4.0/bbl, compared with USD7.9 in 3Q15 and USD8.1 in 2Q15.
Part of this decline is likely to be a seasonal effect from the end of the main driving season in the northern hemisphere. But we also expect an underlying correction in margins due to overcapacity in European refining and strong competition from Middle Eastern, Russian and US refineries, which generally have access to cheaper feedstock and lower energy costs, says Fitch. BG may be the only exception. We expect its earnings to rise in 4Q15 vs 3Q15 provided oil prices do not fall. This is because BG has no exposure to refining and its production is rising due to operations ramping up in Australia and Brazil.
Apart from oil prices, majors' upstream profits will be increasingly affected by the scale of cost deflation. Oil majors are reducing costs and in some parts of the value chain, the fall has already been substantial. For example, in the offshore drilling industry the cost of hiring a rig has fallen by 30%-40% yoy, according to various sources. According to Total, rates for many other services, including marine logistics and well services, are down up to 20%. Overall, however, industry deflation is still insufficient to materially affect profits, as negotiating new contracts may take some time. We expect the impact to be more pronounced in 2016 as oil majors are now re-negotiating prices with their contractors and are aiming to reduce staff costs and streamline operations.
To balance their cash flows, oil majors are reducing capex and continuing divestments. Majors' ability to keep these commitments without jeopardizing the level and quality of reserves and production will drive their ratings in the next one or two years. For example, BP said its 2015-2017 capex will be USD17bn-19bn a year, compared with the original 2015 guidance of USD24bn-26bn announced a year ago. Total's guidance for 2015 is unchanged at USD23bn-24bn, but the company said capex will go down to USD20bn-21bn in 2016 and USD17bn-19bn a year in 2017-2019. Shell said it will prioritize debt reduction over dividends and capex.
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Tuesday, 18 August 15
DRY BULK: MARKETS HAVE CONTINUED TO BE SEVERELY CHALLENGED - CLARKSONS
The dry bulk markets have continued to be severely challenged with freight rates falling during the period to below operating expense. The Baltic D ...
Tuesday, 18 August 15
1Q'16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FALLS BELOW $54 A TON
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
Tuesday, 18 August 15
2Q' 16 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $43 PER MT W/E 14 AUGUST
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down $ 1.08 per MT (-2.46%) month over month to US$ 42.82 per mt. The swap ...
Monday, 17 August 15
TROUBLED DRY BULK MARKET FACES TURMOIL AS CHINESE COAL IMPORTS REMAIN WEAK - BIMCO
The demand for coal in China continues to diminish. So much in fact that India is expected to succeed China as the world’s largest imp ...
Monday, 17 August 15
INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL REFERENCE PRICE HITS RECORD LOW AGAIN!
COALspot.com - The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia revised down Indonesian coal benchmark price once again to US$ 59.14 per MT fo ...
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- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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