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Tuesday, 03 November 15
EU OIL MAJORS FACE FURTHER EARNINGS DECLINE IN Q415 - FITCH RATINGS
 The sharp drop in major European oil companies' third-quarter profits is likely to be extended in the fourth quarter as refining margins, which had cushioned some of the blow from low oil prices, have fallen steeply, Fitch Ratings says.
According to Fitch, with little prospect of a near-term oil-price recovery and refining margins likely to remain thin, companies' ability to stabilize or even grow profits in 2016 will depend on how quickly cost-cutting measures and cost deflation in the supply chain feed through to the bottom line.
Royal Dutch Shell, Total, BP, Eni and BG all reported 3Q15 results last week. On average, their 3Q15 EBITDA fell by 26% compared with 2Q15, and cash flow from operations by 30%. The main reason was lower oil prices as Brent slid 19% from an average USD63/bbl in 2Q15 to USD51/bbl in 3Q15. The majors' 9M15 EBITDA dropped 39%, and cash from operations fell 38%, as Brent plummeted by 48%, from an average of USD107/bbl in 9M14 to USD56 in 9M15.
4Q15 may be even more painful for integrated companies as refining margins have fallen since the middle of the third quarter, which is likely to drag on profits in their downstream operations. In October, Brent Crack Rotterdam Refinery Margin, as calculated by Thomson Reuters, averaged USD4.0/bbl, compared with USD7.9 in 3Q15 and USD8.1 in 2Q15.
Part of this decline is likely to be a seasonal effect from the end of the main driving season in the northern hemisphere. But we also expect an underlying correction in margins due to overcapacity in European refining and strong competition from Middle Eastern, Russian and US refineries, which generally have access to cheaper feedstock and lower energy costs, says Fitch. BG may be the only exception. We expect its earnings to rise in 4Q15 vs 3Q15 provided oil prices do not fall. This is because BG has no exposure to refining and its production is rising due to operations ramping up in Australia and Brazil.
Apart from oil prices, majors' upstream profits will be increasingly affected by the scale of cost deflation. Oil majors are reducing costs and in some parts of the value chain, the fall has already been substantial. For example, in the offshore drilling industry the cost of hiring a rig has fallen by 30%-40% yoy, according to various sources. According to Total, rates for many other services, including marine logistics and well services, are down up to 20%. Overall, however, industry deflation is still insufficient to materially affect profits, as negotiating new contracts may take some time. We expect the impact to be more pronounced in 2016 as oil majors are now re-negotiating prices with their contractors and are aiming to reduce staff costs and streamline operations.
To balance their cash flows, oil majors are reducing capex and continuing divestments. Majors' ability to keep these commitments without jeopardizing the level and quality of reserves and production will drive their ratings in the next one or two years. For example, BP said its 2015-2017 capex will be USD17bn-19bn a year, compared with the original 2015 guidance of USD24bn-26bn announced a year ago. Total's guidance for 2015 is unchanged at USD23bn-24bn, but the company said capex will go down to USD20bn-21bn in 2016 and USD17bn-19bn a year in 2017-2019. Shell said it will prioritize debt reduction over dividends and capex.
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Friday, 11 September 15
U.S'S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION WAS ALMOST FLAT PAST WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 18.6 million shor ...
Thursday, 10 September 15
U.S. H1' 15 STEAM COAL EXPORTS FELL BY 21 PER CENT Y-Y: EIA
Coal Trade
Slower growth in world coal demand, lower international coal prices, and higher coal output in other coal-exporting countries have all ...
Thursday, 10 September 15
INDONESIAN COAL BENCHMARK PRICE HITS A NEW LOW OF $58.21 PER TON
COALspot.com - The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia once a again revised down Indonesian coal benchmark price to US$ 58.21 per MT ...
Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the fr ...
Wednesday, 09 September 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP LOSE GROUND ON SLOWING DEMAND
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The 4Q swap declined $ 1.92 (-4.52%) per t ...
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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