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Saturday, 22 August 09
'THE BDI IS LIKELY TO BE HOLDING AROUND 2,500 POINTS' - SHIPPING UPDATE


COALspot.com (Singapore): The dry bulk market continued to be soft and the BDI dropped by 10 percent this week and closed at 24,68 points this week. The cape index dropped by about 14% and the BCI index closed at 4,030 points.  The Panamax index was down by about 6% and closed at 2,244 points.

The Suprmax and Handysize index was almost stable and closed at 1,733 points and 823 points respectively. The average charter rate were at Cape / US$ 38,923 , Panamax/  US$  18,023, Supramax / US$ 18,119 and handysize / US$ 11,927.

"The BDI is likely to be holding around 2,500 points" said Capt. Reddy, Managing Director of Vistaar Shipping Services Pte Limited, Singapore.

He further said, the main reason for pull back seems to be sudden drop of iron ore prices and the charter rates down in the India / Far East sector.

The iron ore import by China in July was quite impressive at 58.8 million tons and also the coal import stood at 13.88 million tons. China has maintained the momentum on import of iron ore and coal until July 2009. The iron ore prices ex India dropped by almost US$ 20 pmt in less than 2 weeks which seems to be because of China slowing down on iron ore imports.

The global steel production reached 100 million tons in July 09 for the first time since September 2008 with strong growth registered for July 09 in China (+13% to 50.7 Mt) and India (+4% to 4.7 Mt).

The congestion in Australia seems to be increasing again with about 120 coal vessels waiting EC Australia and 19 iron ore vessels waiting WC Australia.  The congestion in EC India Paradip and Visakhapatnam continues to be high with almost about 10/14 days waiting.  Iron ore ports in Australia , Brazil and China indicate about 123 vessels (including coal ports in Australia) waiting to berth.

The charter rates for supramax opening Far East was at around US$ 13,000 per day. The Supramax rates from India to China was at around US$ 20,000 / 21,000 per day. One year charter rates for Supramax was at around US$ 16,500 / 17, 000 per day and short period rates for vessels opening Far East. South East Asia was around US$ 17,000-18,000 pr day.

Two / Three year charter rates is around US$ 15,000-16,000 per day said, Vistaar Shipping. The futures for three years for 2010-2012 is around Cape / US$ 26,000 pday, Panamax / US$ 15,500 per day, Supramax / US$ 13, 500 per day, Handysize / US$ 10,000 pday.

The crude prices continued to remain firm during the week with brent crude at US$ 74 per barrel and the bunker prices continued to be around  US$ 442 pmt for IFO(380 cst) prices ex Singapore.

Click here for Vistaar's forecasted (indicative) spot freight rates for coal & iron-ore cargo for 11 specific routes. (cs)



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