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Friday, 30 October 15
CHINESE MINERAL IMPORTS: MOVING ON FROM INDONESIA? - CLARKSONS
 China has accounted for almost 90% of global imports of nickel ore and bauxite in recent years and was therefore heavily hit by the Indonesian mineral export ban, introduced in January 2014. While the Philippines and Malaysia have ramped up mineral exports, the volumes have fallen somewhat short of those shipped prior to the ban and there are now divergent trends in Chinese demand for these commodities.
Preparing For A Difficult End
Indonesia accounted for around 60% and 70% of global nickel ore and bauxite exports respectively, prior to the introduction of a ban on exports of some unrefined minerals. China imported significant volumes of both nickel ore and bauxite in 2013 in anticipation of the ban, before shipments of both commodities plummeted in 1H 2014. Since then the country’s imports of nickel ore and bauxite, largely from the Philippines and Malaysia, have recovered to varying degrees.
Bauxite: Malaysia Moving In
Chinese bauxite imports, used for aluminium production, have recovered somewhat since mid-2014, as Malaysia emerged as an exporter and significantly ramped up mining output. In 1H 2015, Malaysian bauxite exports to China exceeded 9mt: over double the total in full year 2014. The country’s share of Chinese imports increased to 44% in May 2015, overtaking Australia as China’s top supplier. While volumes of bauxite shipments have not compared to the 72mt imported in 2013, prior to the ban, Chinese imports have grown firmly this year and are set to increase 18% y-o-y, to reach 43mt. Chinese demand has been driven by a 33% y-o-y increase in aluminium output in January to August 2015. However, reports indicate that domestic aluminium consumption has dropped in recent months and Chinese producers may have to increasingly turn to exports. While the country’s bauxite imports have been robust in the year to date, the current low aluminium price environment and potential production cuts pose a downside risk to future import growth.
Nickel Ore: Just Not The Same
China is also a major importer of nickel ore, a component of nickel pig iron (NPI), currently used in the country’s stainless steel production. While the Philippines replaced Indonesia as China’s primary source of nickel ore after the ban, the volumes shipped have fallen considerably short of the 71mt shipped in 2013. Indeed, Chinese nickel ore imports have continued to fall and are currently forecast to drop 18% y-o-y to a five year low of 39mt in full year 2015. This is for two main reasons. Firstly, NPI producers have relied on stockpiles of higher quality Indonesian nickel ore, blending imports of the lower quality Philippine product. Secondly, Chinese demand for nickel ore has been hit by a drop in national NPI output, reflecting the country’s easing stainless steel production in the year to date.
So, while the loss of Indonesia as a source of mineral imports had a significant impact on import volumes in 2014, China has since been able to find alternative supplies. Now, the focus has shifted to trends in Chinese demand. The country’s nickel ore imports have already been impacted, partly by NPI production cuts. However, despite growing market pressures, aluminium output and bauxite imports have so far remained more resilient.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctivel ...
Wednesday, 21 October 15
INDONESIAN COAL MINER BUKIT ASAM POSTS POSITIVE PERFORMANCE DURING FIRST THREE QUARTERS OF 2015
COALspot.com: Indonesian publicly listed and state controlled coal miner PT. Bukit Asam has announced that, the company’s coal sales up 8 per ...
Wednesday, 21 October 15
LOWER DEMAND HIT Q1' 16 INDONESIA COAL SWAPS
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q4 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The Q4 swap declined $ 1.88 (-4.71%) per t ...
Tuesday, 20 October 15
SHIPBROKER SEES CAPESIZE RATES EASILY REACHING $25,000/DAY BY YEAR-END : NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The future course of the dry bulk market has been troubling market participants for quite some time now, as the “elusive” freight rate ...
Tuesday, 20 October 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS SINK INTO RED THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q4' 2015 declined week over week and month over month.
The Q4 swap was down US$ ...
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