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Tuesday, 20 October 15
SHIPBROKER SEES CAPESIZE RATES EASILY REACHING $25,000/DAY BY YEAR-END : NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
PanamaxThe future course of the dry bulk market has been troubling market participants for quite some time now, as the “elusive” freight rate rally never seems to materialize, at least in terms of a viable market situation. In its latest report, shipbroker Allied Shipbroking noted that “with the month of October already in its second week and the dry bulk market still in decline a split in opinion has started to emerge, with many still expecting a rally to be seen during the course of the final quarter of 2015, while others are more cautious noting a weakness in the paper market and a lack in activity in the actual market. The truth is that despite a slight increase in interest and an influx of demand from the Far East, rates have yet to show a positive face”.

Αccording to Allied’s George Lazaridis, Head of Market Research & Asset Valuations, “we have seen a growing interest in both the Pacific and North Atlantic basin over the last days which should generate a fairly good momentum moving forward, while in the Capesize market the recent improvement has been noted without the help of the main West Australian or Brazilian shippers, which as things stand now are still waiting in the sidelines. Taking into consideration the late emergence of the summer rally and given that commodity prices are once again at close to some of their lowest levels, it shouldn’t be long before traders react, looking to take advantage of the cheaper prices on offer and pulling in all their re-stocking demands for the period”.

Lazaridis added that “in the case of the Capesize and Handysize vessels, this looks to be a double gain, as we only need to see a similar rise in interest as the one noted last year during the same period in order to generate an equal improvement in freight levels, given as the fleet size of both these size segments has remained overall unchanged during the past 12 months. Taking the same consideration for Panamaxes and Supramaxes things aren’t as rosy, as their respective fleets have shown a notable increase since then.

Nevertheless, things have been more positive for these size segments thanks to the improving demand from India which is driving bigger interest in the Pacific for these vessels. As such it wouldn’t be an exaggeration to place a base case scenario of the Baltic TCA rates in the Supramaxes and Panamaxes surpassing at some point the US$ 10,000/day mark before the year closes, while Capesizes should easily reach the US$ 25,000/day mark”, Allied’s analyst noted.

Yet, as Lazaridis pointed out, “despite this and beyond the fact that it seemed as if we had reached bottom in terms of asset prices, it now looks as though the direction here is also on the verge of a change. Unfortunately and given the large influx of modern sales candidates that have entered the market in the past weeks, while also taking into consideration that a large portion of these are from troubled owners, expectations are for another drop. The main issue here is by how much and with market dynamics, namely the freight market and supply of sales candidates, moving in opposite directions, we will inevitably see a “tug of war”. What will push the scale in favor of softer prices will likely be the lack of market optimism, as few out there are hopeful in terms of the prospects of the first quarter of 2016 which will follow thereafter”.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News


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