We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Monday, 12 October 15
DRY BULK SHIPPING: MARKETS ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING FROM A VERY LOW LEVEL AS THE DEMAND SIDE FALTERS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 The dry bulk market is in the midst of a shift in demand patterns, which coupled with a tonnage supply overhang, has been facing headwinds over the past few years. In its latest short-term outlook, BIMCO noted that “when traditional demand growth is not increasing, we need to look harder for future growth. Here the glut of high-iron-content ore in the international markets and the following low prices may finally bring around a sizeable substitution in consumption by Chinese steel mills, away from the domestically produced low-iron-content ore, in favour of imports”.
“Calculations done by BIMCO show that monthly imports into China could be 20mt higher per month (+26%). A total of an extra 240 million tons on an annual basis could bring deployment for around 155 Capesizes, assuming an unchanged distribution between Australian and Brazilian imports (75%/25%). Last year, Australia grew its share significantly as 90% of Chinese incremental demand came from Australia.
As Brazilian miner Vale is expecting to grow its output over the next year, this would improve the prospects. Working against would be more Brazilian ore transported on 400,000-DWT Valemax class ships operated by the miner itself or related parties”, BIMCO noted in its report.
As such, it concludes that “for the coming months: September-November, BIMCO expects the supply of new ships to stay subdued and slow paced towards the end of the year. The deteriorating demand-side conditions are expected to be somewhat reversed as we move into the stronger months of the year. The vital commodities, coal and iron ore, are both expected to be in higher demand in coming months, enhancing owners’ and operators’ opportunities to find employment for their ships. Altogether this should support the freight rates although no large-scale improvement to the fundamental balance is likely to develop”.
According to BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand, “the shipping market and underlying profitability can only improve if the fundamental conditions (supply and demand) also improve. Therefore transportation of larger volumes, longer sailing distances in general or a lower increase of dry-bulk fleet size is a prerequisite for better markets to arrive. On the first issue about more commodities, we have seen coal as the primary culprit so far, with grains potentially also sinking into the red before the end of the year. Volumes of steam coal and coking coal are both contracting notably, and our forecast is for an annual decline in transport driven by the lack of demand from China (-51 million mt) in the East and the UK (-13mt) in the West cushioned by increased appetite for imported steam coal in India (+16mt). Prospects for the latter have declined somewhat over the summer as domestic production and power-plant stocks both have risen”.
At the same time, “the coal-exporting nations suffering from this decline in demand are the two giants, Indonesia and Australia, while US exports are down on lower UK imports. On the positive side, the longer-than-normal grain season in South America has benefited primarily the Supramaxes, which apparently defy gravity as being the segment with the highest freight rates, while also facing the biggest increase in fleet size in the dry-bulk sector. Additionally, strong steel exports out of China have contributed to higher Supramax fleet use”.
BIMCO’s report also noted that “the second issue about ton–miles has also come into play this year as a part of the decline in coal has cut off the longer trades at the expense of the shorter hauls. The complete absence of South African thermal coal exports to China for more than a year now is a devastating example of this, especially when it is substituted by non-seaborne imports. In 2014 South Africa supplied China with 5.2mt of thermal down from 12.4mt in 2013.
Meanwhile, “the freight rates for all dry-bulk segments have been low throughout 2015, the July/August spike for Capesize ships being the short-lived exception. Averages for the first eight months of 2015 range from USD 5,605 per day for a Handysize to USD 8,163 per day for a Capesize. The poorest freight market on record is due to a combination of demand weakness and capacity abundance. Unfortunately, there are no easy ways to escape this. As China is going through a period of transition that does not favour the dry-bulk shipping industry, the prime driver is out of the picture. Capacity has been abundant for years, so it’s the change to the demand side, the variable that the industry cannot impact, which is at the epicentre in 2015”.
Supply-wise, BIMCO said that “speaking of the contributing factors to an improved shipping market, the dry-bulk fleet has grown only marginally during the first nine months. The inflow of 39.7 million DWT, which has been offset by demolition of 23.8 million DWT, means a fleet growth of just 2.1%. Continuance of a low fleet growth is vital to achieving an eventual recovery and a return of sustainable earnings for the industry. A central element in that equation is a low level of new orders. This has been accomplished by a landslide margin. In Clarksons orderbook statistics, there were only 84 new contracts recorded at the end of August. Such a cautious attitude is quite the opposite of what happened less than two years ago, when capacity equal to the year-to-date amount in 2015 (4.7 million DWT) was contracted in just 16 days!”
According to Mr. Sand, “demolition also holds a key position in today’s and tomorrow’s fleet-growth level. Although 306 ships have left the fleet so far in 2015, owners’ interest in making use of the demolition “tool” to limit supply growth seems to have evaporated completely over the summer. In early July, BIMCO cautioned that a new full year record level of demolished capacity would not arrive in spite of a record first half of the year. Unfortunately, our expectations have proven to be all too right. Spiking Capesize rates immediately cooled owners’ interest in the hope that a market rebound was around the corner”.
Furthermore, the strong Chinese steel export at discount prices to the countries that used to prefer scrap steel to new steel means that scrap prices keep heading lower and lower as volumes decrease. “Only 37 ships were sent to the blow torch in July and August. As trading conditions continue to challenge all shipowners and operators, everything that can be done to delay the delivery of the next ship has been done within the legally binding nature of a newbuilding contract. It is not easy to discuss terms with shipyards at a late stage in the building process, but the result is now clear. 2015 is about to receive “only” 49 million DWT, which will bring fleet growth down to a 10-year low at 2.5%”, BIMCO concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Tuesday, 22 September 15
1Q16 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP DECLINED 6.49 PER CENT M-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The 4Q swap declined $ 2.29 (-5.42%) per t ...
Tuesday, 22 September 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS FALL CONTINUES
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined week over week and month over month.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
Monday, 21 September 15
Q4' 15 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED HIGHER THAN Q2' 16 SWAP
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery increased $0.43 per ton (1.01%) month over month to US$ 42.95 per ton. The ...
Monday, 21 September 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP GAINED WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US$ 0.45 (0.90 %) per ton month over month.
A commodit ...
Monday, 21 September 15
KOMIPO OF KOREA INVITES BIDS FOR BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender for 390,000 Metric Tons (MT) of minimum 4,600 kcal ...
|
|
|
Showing 2801 to 2805 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- White Energy Company Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
|
| |
| |
|
