We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Monday, 12 October 15
DRY BULK SHIPPING: MARKETS ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING FROM A VERY LOW LEVEL AS THE DEMAND SIDE FALTERS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 The dry bulk market is in the midst of a shift in demand patterns, which coupled with a tonnage supply overhang, has been facing headwinds over the past few years. In its latest short-term outlook, BIMCO noted that “when traditional demand growth is not increasing, we need to look harder for future growth. Here the glut of high-iron-content ore in the international markets and the following low prices may finally bring around a sizeable substitution in consumption by Chinese steel mills, away from the domestically produced low-iron-content ore, in favour of imports”.
“Calculations done by BIMCO show that monthly imports into China could be 20mt higher per month (+26%). A total of an extra 240 million tons on an annual basis could bring deployment for around 155 Capesizes, assuming an unchanged distribution between Australian and Brazilian imports (75%/25%). Last year, Australia grew its share significantly as 90% of Chinese incremental demand came from Australia.
As Brazilian miner Vale is expecting to grow its output over the next year, this would improve the prospects. Working against would be more Brazilian ore transported on 400,000-DWT Valemax class ships operated by the miner itself or related parties”, BIMCO noted in its report.
As such, it concludes that “for the coming months: September-November, BIMCO expects the supply of new ships to stay subdued and slow paced towards the end of the year. The deteriorating demand-side conditions are expected to be somewhat reversed as we move into the stronger months of the year. The vital commodities, coal and iron ore, are both expected to be in higher demand in coming months, enhancing owners’ and operators’ opportunities to find employment for their ships. Altogether this should support the freight rates although no large-scale improvement to the fundamental balance is likely to develop”.
According to BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand, “the shipping market and underlying profitability can only improve if the fundamental conditions (supply and demand) also improve. Therefore transportation of larger volumes, longer sailing distances in general or a lower increase of dry-bulk fleet size is a prerequisite for better markets to arrive. On the first issue about more commodities, we have seen coal as the primary culprit so far, with grains potentially also sinking into the red before the end of the year. Volumes of steam coal and coking coal are both contracting notably, and our forecast is for an annual decline in transport driven by the lack of demand from China (-51 million mt) in the East and the UK (-13mt) in the West cushioned by increased appetite for imported steam coal in India (+16mt). Prospects for the latter have declined somewhat over the summer as domestic production and power-plant stocks both have risen”.
At the same time, “the coal-exporting nations suffering from this decline in demand are the two giants, Indonesia and Australia, while US exports are down on lower UK imports. On the positive side, the longer-than-normal grain season in South America has benefited primarily the Supramaxes, which apparently defy gravity as being the segment with the highest freight rates, while also facing the biggest increase in fleet size in the dry-bulk sector. Additionally, strong steel exports out of China have contributed to higher Supramax fleet use”.
BIMCO’s report also noted that “the second issue about ton–miles has also come into play this year as a part of the decline in coal has cut off the longer trades at the expense of the shorter hauls. The complete absence of South African thermal coal exports to China for more than a year now is a devastating example of this, especially when it is substituted by non-seaborne imports. In 2014 South Africa supplied China with 5.2mt of thermal down from 12.4mt in 2013.
Meanwhile, “the freight rates for all dry-bulk segments have been low throughout 2015, the July/August spike for Capesize ships being the short-lived exception. Averages for the first eight months of 2015 range from USD 5,605 per day for a Handysize to USD 8,163 per day for a Capesize. The poorest freight market on record is due to a combination of demand weakness and capacity abundance. Unfortunately, there are no easy ways to escape this. As China is going through a period of transition that does not favour the dry-bulk shipping industry, the prime driver is out of the picture. Capacity has been abundant for years, so it’s the change to the demand side, the variable that the industry cannot impact, which is at the epicentre in 2015”.
Supply-wise, BIMCO said that “speaking of the contributing factors to an improved shipping market, the dry-bulk fleet has grown only marginally during the first nine months. The inflow of 39.7 million DWT, which has been offset by demolition of 23.8 million DWT, means a fleet growth of just 2.1%. Continuance of a low fleet growth is vital to achieving an eventual recovery and a return of sustainable earnings for the industry. A central element in that equation is a low level of new orders. This has been accomplished by a landslide margin. In Clarksons orderbook statistics, there were only 84 new contracts recorded at the end of August. Such a cautious attitude is quite the opposite of what happened less than two years ago, when capacity equal to the year-to-date amount in 2015 (4.7 million DWT) was contracted in just 16 days!”
According to Mr. Sand, “demolition also holds a key position in today’s and tomorrow’s fleet-growth level. Although 306 ships have left the fleet so far in 2015, owners’ interest in making use of the demolition “tool” to limit supply growth seems to have evaporated completely over the summer. In early July, BIMCO cautioned that a new full year record level of demolished capacity would not arrive in spite of a record first half of the year. Unfortunately, our expectations have proven to be all too right. Spiking Capesize rates immediately cooled owners’ interest in the hope that a market rebound was around the corner”.
Furthermore, the strong Chinese steel export at discount prices to the countries that used to prefer scrap steel to new steel means that scrap prices keep heading lower and lower as volumes decrease. “Only 37 ships were sent to the blow torch in July and August. As trading conditions continue to challenge all shipowners and operators, everything that can be done to delay the delivery of the next ship has been done within the legally binding nature of a newbuilding contract. It is not easy to discuss terms with shipyards at a late stage in the building process, but the result is now clear. 2015 is about to receive “only” 49 million DWT, which will bring fleet growth down to a 10-year low at 2.5%”, BIMCO concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Wednesday, 07 October 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Sale and Purchase activity during the first three quarters of 2015 and more specifically during the summer season has been rather remarkable. 421 v ...
Wednesday, 07 October 15
INDONESIA COAL SWAPS HAVE CONTINUED TO DECLINE, FALLING ALMOST 7% M-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q4 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The Q4 swap declined $ 2.23 (-5.51%) per t ...
Tuesday, 06 October 15
THE IMPACT OF LOW OIL PRICE ON THE SHIPPING INDUSTRY - LITERATED
The fall in global oil prices over the last one year has been beneficial to the shipping industry. The demand for oil tankers has picked up and the ...
Tuesday, 06 October 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS PLUNGE MORE THAN 6 PER CENT M-M
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q4' 2015 declined week over week and month over month.
The Q4 swap was down US$ ...
Monday, 05 October 15
Q1 & Q2 2016 DELIVERY SWAPS DECLINED M-M AND W-W THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2015 delivery decreased $0.36 per ton (0.85%) month over month to US$ 42.12 per ton. The ...
|
|
|
Showing 2781 to 2785 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
|
| |
| |
|