We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Monday, 12 October 15
DRY BULK SHIPPING: MARKETS ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING FROM A VERY LOW LEVEL AS THE DEMAND SIDE FALTERS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 The dry bulk market is in the midst of a shift in demand patterns, which coupled with a tonnage supply overhang, has been facing headwinds over the past few years. In its latest short-term outlook, BIMCO noted that “when traditional demand growth is not increasing, we need to look harder for future growth. Here the glut of high-iron-content ore in the international markets and the following low prices may finally bring around a sizeable substitution in consumption by Chinese steel mills, away from the domestically produced low-iron-content ore, in favour of imports”.
“Calculations done by BIMCO show that monthly imports into China could be 20mt higher per month (+26%). A total of an extra 240 million tons on an annual basis could bring deployment for around 155 Capesizes, assuming an unchanged distribution between Australian and Brazilian imports (75%/25%). Last year, Australia grew its share significantly as 90% of Chinese incremental demand came from Australia.
As Brazilian miner Vale is expecting to grow its output over the next year, this would improve the prospects. Working against would be more Brazilian ore transported on 400,000-DWT Valemax class ships operated by the miner itself or related parties”, BIMCO noted in its report.
As such, it concludes that “for the coming months: September-November, BIMCO expects the supply of new ships to stay subdued and slow paced towards the end of the year. The deteriorating demand-side conditions are expected to be somewhat reversed as we move into the stronger months of the year. The vital commodities, coal and iron ore, are both expected to be in higher demand in coming months, enhancing owners’ and operators’ opportunities to find employment for their ships. Altogether this should support the freight rates although no large-scale improvement to the fundamental balance is likely to develop”.
According to BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand, “the shipping market and underlying profitability can only improve if the fundamental conditions (supply and demand) also improve. Therefore transportation of larger volumes, longer sailing distances in general or a lower increase of dry-bulk fleet size is a prerequisite for better markets to arrive. On the first issue about more commodities, we have seen coal as the primary culprit so far, with grains potentially also sinking into the red before the end of the year. Volumes of steam coal and coking coal are both contracting notably, and our forecast is for an annual decline in transport driven by the lack of demand from China (-51 million mt) in the East and the UK (-13mt) in the West cushioned by increased appetite for imported steam coal in India (+16mt). Prospects for the latter have declined somewhat over the summer as domestic production and power-plant stocks both have risen”.
At the same time, “the coal-exporting nations suffering from this decline in demand are the two giants, Indonesia and Australia, while US exports are down on lower UK imports. On the positive side, the longer-than-normal grain season in South America has benefited primarily the Supramaxes, which apparently defy gravity as being the segment with the highest freight rates, while also facing the biggest increase in fleet size in the dry-bulk sector. Additionally, strong steel exports out of China have contributed to higher Supramax fleet use”.
BIMCO’s report also noted that “the second issue about ton–miles has also come into play this year as a part of the decline in coal has cut off the longer trades at the expense of the shorter hauls. The complete absence of South African thermal coal exports to China for more than a year now is a devastating example of this, especially when it is substituted by non-seaborne imports. In 2014 South Africa supplied China with 5.2mt of thermal down from 12.4mt in 2013.
Meanwhile, “the freight rates for all dry-bulk segments have been low throughout 2015, the July/August spike for Capesize ships being the short-lived exception. Averages for the first eight months of 2015 range from USD 5,605 per day for a Handysize to USD 8,163 per day for a Capesize. The poorest freight market on record is due to a combination of demand weakness and capacity abundance. Unfortunately, there are no easy ways to escape this. As China is going through a period of transition that does not favour the dry-bulk shipping industry, the prime driver is out of the picture. Capacity has been abundant for years, so it’s the change to the demand side, the variable that the industry cannot impact, which is at the epicentre in 2015”.
Supply-wise, BIMCO said that “speaking of the contributing factors to an improved shipping market, the dry-bulk fleet has grown only marginally during the first nine months. The inflow of 39.7 million DWT, which has been offset by demolition of 23.8 million DWT, means a fleet growth of just 2.1%. Continuance of a low fleet growth is vital to achieving an eventual recovery and a return of sustainable earnings for the industry. A central element in that equation is a low level of new orders. This has been accomplished by a landslide margin. In Clarksons orderbook statistics, there were only 84 new contracts recorded at the end of August. Such a cautious attitude is quite the opposite of what happened less than two years ago, when capacity equal to the year-to-date amount in 2015 (4.7 million DWT) was contracted in just 16 days!”
According to Mr. Sand, “demolition also holds a key position in today’s and tomorrow’s fleet-growth level. Although 306 ships have left the fleet so far in 2015, owners’ interest in making use of the demolition “tool” to limit supply growth seems to have evaporated completely over the summer. In early July, BIMCO cautioned that a new full year record level of demolished capacity would not arrive in spite of a record first half of the year. Unfortunately, our expectations have proven to be all too right. Spiking Capesize rates immediately cooled owners’ interest in the hope that a market rebound was around the corner”.
Furthermore, the strong Chinese steel export at discount prices to the countries that used to prefer scrap steel to new steel means that scrap prices keep heading lower and lower as volumes decrease. “Only 37 ships were sent to the blow torch in July and August. As trading conditions continue to challenge all shipowners and operators, everything that can be done to delay the delivery of the next ship has been done within the legally binding nature of a newbuilding contract. It is not easy to discuss terms with shipyards at a late stage in the building process, but the result is now clear. 2015 is about to receive “only” 49 million DWT, which will bring fleet growth down to a 10-year low at 2.5%”, BIMCO concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Wednesday, 07 October 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Sale and Purchase activity during the first three quarters of 2015 and more specifically during the summer season has been rather remarkable. 421 v ...
Wednesday, 07 October 15
INDONESIA COAL SWAPS HAVE CONTINUED TO DECLINE, FALLING ALMOST 7% M-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q4 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The Q4 swap declined $ 2.23 (-5.51%) per t ...
Tuesday, 06 October 15
THE IMPACT OF LOW OIL PRICE ON THE SHIPPING INDUSTRY - LITERATED
The fall in global oil prices over the last one year has been beneficial to the shipping industry. The demand for oil tankers has picked up and the ...
Tuesday, 06 October 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS PLUNGE MORE THAN 6 PER CENT M-M
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q4' 2015 declined week over week and month over month.
The Q4 swap was down US$ ...
Monday, 05 October 15
Q1 & Q2 2016 DELIVERY SWAPS DECLINED M-M AND W-W THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2015 delivery decreased $0.36 per ton (0.85%) month over month to US$ 42.12 per ton. The ...
|
|
|
Showing 2781 to 2785 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PTC India Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
|
| |
| |
|
