We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Sunday, 11 October 15
TANKER SHIPPING: MORE OPTIMISM IN SIGHT FOR TANKERS IN THE WINTER SEASON - BIMCO
 Demand:
2015 has been the year of the tanker. The fundamental improvements with slow supply-side growth for some years coupled with low oil prices from mid-2014 created strength on both sides. Freight rates started to take off in October 2014 for all types and sizes. The combination of an early start to the fourth-quarter seasonal strength heading into winter and the fact that the oil prices continued to slide became a catalyst.
Throughout 2015, the global refinery throughput has been on a rise. The normal seasonal lower throughput in the first half of the year with widespread maintenance did not occur. Owing to rising and already elevated refinery margins from East to West, refineries simply wanted all the crude oil they could get. This development still provides strong demand and solid freight rates for the tanker industry. In India, we saw a record of 4.74 million barrels per day (mb/d) of crude throughput in June, marking a truly global trend, whereas Middle Eastern refineries also hit a record throughput because of increased runs in Saudi Arabia.
October is traditionally another month of lower throughput as refineries get ready for the winter season when crude runs normally peak. Moreover, the American “Labor Day” on 7 September marks the end of the US driving season which started on Memorial Day, 25 May. This means that the recent 10mb/d production of gasoline will come down.
Some of that weakness may already have caused freight rates to come down sharply, in combination with the global financial uncertainties originating from China. Very large crude Carriers (VLCCs), Suezmax and Aframax have seen freight rates cut in two since mid-June, while Handysize has been the one to drop the most among oil product tankers.
In a rush of excitement, it’s easily forgotten that such high refinery crude runs can only go on for so long, if end consumption supports it. End consumption has supported it some of the way but not all the way. Swollen stocks of crude oil and oil products are now seen everywhere. Preliminary OECD total industry stock change in second-quarter was 1.1mb/d. All stocks but gasoline increased, US crude oil stocks too. In comparison global oil demand dropped by 0.1mb/d over the same period of time and is expected to see an increase of 1.6mb/d to be consumed for the full year over 2014.
Supply:
Contrary to what happens too often, the strong freight markets for oil product tankers have not resulted in a knee-jerk run to the shipyard to order a massive amount of new ships. This stands in opposition to the crude oil tanker orders seen in 2015, as if the lid has come off finally after several years of resisting the temptation.
By end-August 2015, 56 product tankers with a total capacity of 4.8 million DWT, predominantly LR2 (20) and LR1 (21), have been ordered and will be delivered in 2016-17. They are aiming to get a share of the market for longer-haul trades out of Middle East refineries, predominantly into the Western markets. This ordering trend has been on for two years now.
Among the crude oil tanker segments, we have already seen more orders for both Aframax and VLCCs than we did in the whole of 2014. Aframax in particular has been popular with investors this year; after six years with one order a month on average, 2015 has seen 29 new contracts in the first eight months. For the VLCCs, the orders with delivery in particular 2017 (21) and in 2018 (14) have been favoured by investors. In 2015, 50 new VLCC contracts in total have been signed.
One of the launchers which has lifted the freight rates into orbit is two years of very slow fleet growth. Today the fleet holds 648 VLCCs, whereas 628 VLCCs were active by mid-2013. That’s a growth of just 3% in 26 months. Looking forward into the future inflow of crude oil tankers, we can see the delivery pace is picking up and the demolition potential is vanishing with just 14 VLCCs being more than 20 years old and another 16 getting inside the window of the fourth special survey in 2016.
On order for a scheduled delivery during the next 16 months are 71 VLCCs. This means a double-paced inflow as it has taken 34 months for the latest 71 VLCCs to be put into active service.
The change in supply-side conditions will slowly tighten the freight market, and as we look into 2016, the tide could turn fundamentally as a fleet growth of 4.4% is likely to outstrip demand growth. As the coming two years are now “full” in terms of remaining in control of supply-side growth, any additional crude oil tanker orders should be placed for 2018 delivery.
BIMCO forecasts the present and next year supply growth for oil product tankers to be at 5.4% and 5.7% respectively, meaning two “full” years too for that segment.
Outlook:
Looking forward, the winter markets are expected to soften, as the eventual lower refinery crude oil throughput when no more stocks can be filled and margins begin to crumble as demand slips. Until then BIMCO expects earnings for both crude oil and oil product tankers to remain strong. Our expectations are primarily supported by low fleet growth for crude oil tankers and long-haul trades for oil product tankers.
High volatility in freight rates can be expected in the coming half year half a year, when it may also be prudent to look at the time charter market, where one- and three-year time charter rates are both at their highest level since 2009. At USD 48,000 per day and USD 43,500 per day, time charters will make positive returns after all costs inclusive of capital cost and depreciations are deducted.
In the longer run, an eventual repeal of the US crude oil export ban will likely have some impact on the tanker trading lanes. The US congress is set to vote on the issues during this autumn. For the supporters the case is clear: US refineries are saturated with light sweet crude which is produced abundantly. For those in favour of keeping the crude oil export ban still in place there is “national interest”, which currently seems to hold the upper hand. Currently, the only crude oil exports today go to Canada (0.5mb/d).
Moreover, the eventual lifting of international sanctions on Iran is likely to see a steady increase in crude oil, both sweet and sour, into the market over the coming one to three years, depending on much-needed investments to boost production and time to regain market shares. BIMCO expects the re-entry of Iranian crude oil into the market will change trade patterns as other suppliers will be squeezed on their market share. The key will be West African produced sweet crude now going to Europe and East Asia. The latter is the vital one and a stronghold behind the current upturn. The overall impact on the tanker earnings from these changes holds the potential to become both negative and positive.
Source: BIMCO | Hellenic Shipping News
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Tuesday, 20 October 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS SINK INTO RED THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q4' 2015 declined week over week and month over month.
The Q4 swap was down US$ ...
Tuesday, 20 October 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED NEGATIVE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2015 delivery decreased $1.23 per ton (2.86%) month over month to US$ 41.80 per ton. The ...
Monday, 19 October 15
RUSSIA MAJOR COAL MINER KRU CUTS 4.5 MLN T/YR "UNPROFITABLE" EURO SALES - JACQUELINE HOLMES
COALspot.com: Kuzbassrazrezugol (KRU), one of Russia's largest producers of high-quality coal, plans to cut its coal exports in 2016 by about 4 ...
Monday, 19 October 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $48.68 PER TON
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down just US cents 55 (1.12 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity ...
Monday, 19 October 15
KOMIPO SEEKS 1.28 MILLION T/Y COAL FOR DEC 2015 - Q2 2016
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender for 1,280,000 Metric Tons (MT) of minimum 4,600 kc ...
|
|
|
Showing 2761 to 2765 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Coal Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
|
| |
| |
|
