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Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of the Chinese stock market, the devaluation of the country’s currency a few days ago gave even to those who were optimistic in regards to global growth, more reasons to believe that the state of the economy of the world’s 2nd biggest oil consumer is not as strong as originally thought and possibly reflective of other developed economies as well. The sharp fall of oil prices is also partly indicative of these fundamentals.
Almost ten years ago oil was trading at USD46pbl when demand from China started pushing prices up, to a point that these reached almost USD160 pbl just before world economies went into recession. The oil supply glut is now pushing prices further down; with the less optimistic analysts believing that we could even see the 25 mark sooner rather than later.
The fall in prices that we are now witnessing was first predicted back in the middle of 2013, as easing of the Iranian sanctions was being discussed, Libya was about to start production again in a post-Gaddafi era and increased US production through fracking was taking place.
Many believe that the current collapse in prices is engineered by Saudi Arabia in an effort to knock out the US production as it is estimated that the cost of production of a fracking rig, including the financing cost, is about 70usd per barrel. So with oil prices in the region of 25-30usd it is very difficult for refineries in the US to compete and this is also evident in the fact that the number of fracking rigs dropped from 1608 in October 2014 to 747 in April 2015. So where do we stand now?
The first half of the year was brilliant for the tanker owners and nobody expected rates to remain as firm during the summer season as well, when seasonality always traditionally takes its toll on rates. The low oil prices environment supported dry cargo owners to achieve sustainable margins and tanker owners to gain more out of a very good market. The recent negative reversal though has been puzzling everyone. Despite the fact that a number of tanker owners believe that market will reverse course and start firming once again, it seems unlikely that year highs could be reached any time soon amidst the shock waves China keeps sending in the markets around the world.
Saying that, in the next couple of months many refineries are going into their scheduled semi-annual maintenance and about 70 million tons of crude will have to be stored, either on ships or in shore tanks. As demand cannot match supply and global growth is very likely to further decelerate, the tanker market is expected to remain somewhere around current levels, with lower oil prices supporting owners through smaller operating costs, helping them to achieve sustainable margins. The need for storage is at the same time expected to increase demand for dwt for 1-2 months period charters.
OPEC is the only entity that can save prices from further collapsing but there are currently no signs that the organization is heading towards this direction anytime soon, despite the fact that the consensus to start supporting prices is growing within its members. The next meeting scheduled in December is probably too far in the future to prevent a further significant drop even if it called for this much needed production cut. In the meantime, if world economies are set for further headwinds in the future, even cheaper oil doesn’t sound too bad.
By Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 10 March 16
IT FEELS SAFE TO SAY THAT THE MARKET IS SLOWLY AND PAINFULLY REGAINING ITS BALANCE
With the BDI marking its third consecutive positive weekly closing, it feels safe to say that the market is regaining its balance; slowly and painf ...
Wednesday, 09 March 16
U.S. COAL EXPORTS DECLINED 24% (74 MMST) IN 2015; COAL PRODUCTION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY 111 MMST IN 2016 - EIA
U.S. Coal Supply
EIA estimates that U.S. coal production for February 2016 was 54 million short tons (MMst), a 4 MMst (7%) decrease from the prev ...
Wednesday, 09 March 16
RI MAY HAVE TO IMPORT COAL FOR FUTURE POWER PLANTS: STUDY - THE JAKARTA POST
With coal prices continuing to decline, Indonesia will struggle to provide the coal needed to fire up its power stations in the near future, a stud ...
Tuesday, 08 March 16
INDONESIA HIKES COAL BENCHMARK PRICE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 12 MONTHS
COALspot.com: Low coal demand and excess supplies sent Indonesian benchmark coal price further deep in February 2016, but up slightly in Mar ...
Tuesday, 08 March 16
THE DRY CARGO MARKET ENDURED ONE OF ITS MOST DIFFICULT YEARS IN 2015, EXPERIENCING LOWS NOT SEEN SINCE THE MID 1980S - CLARKSONS
Whilst shipping and offshore markets have seen some good opportunities during 2015, overall there have been unprecedented challenges, so we are ver ...
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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