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Wednesday, 05 August 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On July 14th, 2015 a historical consensus was reached in Vienna between Iran and the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, plus Germany (P5+1), to eliminate Tehran’s nuclear program in return for lifting international oil and financial sanctions. The US-Iran deal is the most important breakthrough in their bilateral relationship since 1979, when the Iranian revolution disturbed their relations. In particular, Iran has agreed not to produce any plutonium enriched weapons and additional heavy water reactors for 15 years. The assurance that Iran is satisfying the deal’s commitments will be granted through an extensive UN inspection and observation under the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). It is discussed that assessments and transparency measures may remain in place for as long as 25 years. Expressly, President Obama stated that “this relief will be phased in. Iran must complete key nuclear steps before it begins to receive sanctions relief.”
The markets are already looking towards the challenges, options and prospects that will emerge with the deal being signed. Notably, oil prices fell due to investors’ expectations of an increase in oil exports from Iran to an already oversupplied market. It is estimated that Iran could supply an extra 200k-400k bpd of crude in 2016 on top of a release of 20-40 million barrels from floating storage. The NIOC Managing Director states that if there is enough demand, it is estimated that production could increase by 500k-600k bpd reaching its pre-sanctions level of 4 million bpd within 6 to 12 months. Furthermore, China’s economy is witnessing a growth slow down, while global oil production is close to record highs and thus traders weigh the risk of oil prices possibly falling further.
Furthermore, the agreement will gradually benefit companies that transport Iranian Oil. Once the EU ban on insuring tankers carrying Iranian crude is lifted, imports to countries such as India and Turkey will be comforted and will promote the purchase of contracted volumes. Iran has traditionally been India’s second-largest supplier of crude oil and the prospect of lifting sanctions will also facilitate Pakistan to complete the Iran-Pakistan pipeline. Moreover, it would again be legal for P&I insurance clubs and companies that cover shipowners for several risks to insure Iranian oil cargoes.
Likewise, it is estimated that lifting petrochemical sanctions will permit $1 billion in exports for Iran. The increase in Iranian supplies of oil and gas would trickle down to Europe’s chemical industry, creating a potential game changer for energy-intensive businesses. A traditional player is coming back into the market and preeminently needs to sell, therefore chemical plants of Europe will definitely benefit. Energy companies from Royal Dutch Shell to BP commented after the deal was signed that they were examining their options in a post-sanctions Iran, where production and export potential could expand with the appropriate investment strategies.
Decades of sanctions have inevitably affected the local population and Iranian political setup. With the prospect of sanctions being lifted, Iran’s economic potential will allow for numerous opportunities not only for Iran but also for the wider region, which will directly translate into an increased influence in the Middle East. More importantly, the deal will have some prompt and long-term influence both on global and regional level. The deal will bring out Iran from international isolation. Nevertheless, Iran will have to wait for almost a year to yield the financial returns of the deal, while the six major world powers will most probably reap the benefits of the lower cost of oil immediately.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 15 June 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP: ROSE M-O-M; DECLINED W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 1.43 (2.82%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap is a ...
Sunday, 14 June 15
THE FREIGHT MARKET FINISHED THE WEEK UP COMPARED TO LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market finished the week up compared to last week. All the segments except for Cape index were up. Cape segment was ...
Friday, 12 June 15
EXPECTATIONS IN REGARDS TO THE SUMMER SEASON VARY ACROSS THE MARKET - INTERMODAL
The Dry Bulk market closed off last slightly up last week, with the BDI re-gaining the 600 points level, while the driving force behind the increas ...
Friday, 12 June 15
U.S. PRODUCED 15.1 MMST OF COAL THIS PAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.1 million short ...
Thursday, 11 June 15
IS COAL INDUSTRY GOING TO HIT A BRICK WALL?
COALspot.com - The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia revised down Indonesian coal benchmark price once again to US$ 59.59 per MT fo ...
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The University of Queensland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Planning Commission, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Coal Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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