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Wednesday, 05 August 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On July 14th, 2015 a historical consensus was reached in Vienna between Iran and the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, plus Germany (P5+1), to eliminate Tehran’s nuclear program in return for lifting international oil and financial sanctions. The US-Iran deal is the most important breakthrough in their bilateral relationship since 1979, when the Iranian revolution disturbed their relations. In particular, Iran has agreed not to produce any plutonium enriched weapons and additional heavy water reactors for 15 years. The assurance that Iran is satisfying the deal’s commitments will be granted through an extensive UN inspection and observation under the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). It is discussed that assessments and transparency measures may remain in place for as long as 25 years. Expressly, President Obama stated that “this relief will be phased in. Iran must complete key nuclear steps before it begins to receive sanctions relief.”
The markets are already looking towards the challenges, options and prospects that will emerge with the deal being signed. Notably, oil prices fell due to investors’ expectations of an increase in oil exports from Iran to an already oversupplied market. It is estimated that Iran could supply an extra 200k-400k bpd of crude in 2016 on top of a release of 20-40 million barrels from floating storage. The NIOC Managing Director states that if there is enough demand, it is estimated that production could increase by 500k-600k bpd reaching its pre-sanctions level of 4 million bpd within 6 to 12 months. Furthermore, China’s economy is witnessing a growth slow down, while global oil production is close to record highs and thus traders weigh the risk of oil prices possibly falling further.
Furthermore, the agreement will gradually benefit companies that transport Iranian Oil. Once the EU ban on insuring tankers carrying Iranian crude is lifted, imports to countries such as India and Turkey will be comforted and will promote the purchase of contracted volumes. Iran has traditionally been India’s second-largest supplier of crude oil and the prospect of lifting sanctions will also facilitate Pakistan to complete the Iran-Pakistan pipeline. Moreover, it would again be legal for P&I insurance clubs and companies that cover shipowners for several risks to insure Iranian oil cargoes.
Likewise, it is estimated that lifting petrochemical sanctions will permit $1 billion in exports for Iran. The increase in Iranian supplies of oil and gas would trickle down to Europe’s chemical industry, creating a potential game changer for energy-intensive businesses. A traditional player is coming back into the market and preeminently needs to sell, therefore chemical plants of Europe will definitely benefit. Energy companies from Royal Dutch Shell to BP commented after the deal was signed that they were examining their options in a post-sanctions Iran, where production and export potential could expand with the appropriate investment strategies.
Decades of sanctions have inevitably affected the local population and Iranian political setup. With the prospect of sanctions being lifted, Iran’s economic potential will allow for numerous opportunities not only for Iran but also for the wider region, which will directly translate into an increased influence in the Middle East. More importantly, the deal will have some prompt and long-term influence both on global and regional level. The deal will bring out Iran from international isolation. Nevertheless, Iran will have to wait for almost a year to yield the financial returns of the deal, while the six major world powers will most probably reap the benefits of the lower cost of oil immediately.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 15 September 15
Q2'16 RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS DIP TO $ 51.10 PER TON
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined week over week and month over month.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
Tuesday, 15 September 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR 4Q' 2015 DELIVERY CLOSED AT $42.71 PER TON ON 11 SEPT, SGX DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined $0.94 per MT (-2.15%) month over month to US$ 42.71 per mt. The sw ...
Monday, 14 September 15
Q1'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP DECLINED $1.80 PMT M-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US$ 1.62 (3.21 %) per MT month over month.
A commodity ...
Monday, 14 September 15
MOODY'S LOWERS COMMODITY PRICE ASSUMPTIONS ON MACRO, INDUSTRY FACTORS
COALspot.com: Moody's Investors Service has lowered its base metal price assumptions for 2015-17 as slowing growth in China, lower oil prices, ...
Sunday, 13 September 15
FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOFT NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI decreased further by 6.51 per cent or 57 points since last Friday and closed at 818 on 11 September 2015 while the cape index ...
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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