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Wednesday, 05 August 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On July 14th, 2015 a historical consensus was reached in Vienna between Iran and the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, plus Germany (P5+1), to eliminate Tehran’s nuclear program in return for lifting international oil and financial sanctions. The US-Iran deal is the most important breakthrough in their bilateral relationship since 1979, when the Iranian revolution disturbed their relations. In particular, Iran has agreed not to produce any plutonium enriched weapons and additional heavy water reactors for 15 years. The assurance that Iran is satisfying the deal’s commitments will be granted through an extensive UN inspection and observation under the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). It is discussed that assessments and transparency measures may remain in place for as long as 25 years. Expressly, President Obama stated that “this relief will be phased in. Iran must complete key nuclear steps before it begins to receive sanctions relief.”
The markets are already looking towards the challenges, options and prospects that will emerge with the deal being signed. Notably, oil prices fell due to investors’ expectations of an increase in oil exports from Iran to an already oversupplied market. It is estimated that Iran could supply an extra 200k-400k bpd of crude in 2016 on top of a release of 20-40 million barrels from floating storage. The NIOC Managing Director states that if there is enough demand, it is estimated that production could increase by 500k-600k bpd reaching its pre-sanctions level of 4 million bpd within 6 to 12 months. Furthermore, China’s economy is witnessing a growth slow down, while global oil production is close to record highs and thus traders weigh the risk of oil prices possibly falling further.
Furthermore, the agreement will gradually benefit companies that transport Iranian Oil. Once the EU ban on insuring tankers carrying Iranian crude is lifted, imports to countries such as India and Turkey will be comforted and will promote the purchase of contracted volumes. Iran has traditionally been India’s second-largest supplier of crude oil and the prospect of lifting sanctions will also facilitate Pakistan to complete the Iran-Pakistan pipeline. Moreover, it would again be legal for P&I insurance clubs and companies that cover shipowners for several risks to insure Iranian oil cargoes.
Likewise, it is estimated that lifting petrochemical sanctions will permit $1 billion in exports for Iran. The increase in Iranian supplies of oil and gas would trickle down to Europe’s chemical industry, creating a potential game changer for energy-intensive businesses. A traditional player is coming back into the market and preeminently needs to sell, therefore chemical plants of Europe will definitely benefit. Energy companies from Royal Dutch Shell to BP commented after the deal was signed that they were examining their options in a post-sanctions Iran, where production and export potential could expand with the appropriate investment strategies.
Decades of sanctions have inevitably affected the local population and Iranian political setup. With the prospect of sanctions being lifted, Iran’s economic potential will allow for numerous opportunities not only for Iran but also for the wider region, which will directly translate into an increased influence in the Middle East. More importantly, the deal will have some prompt and long-term influence both on global and regional level. The deal will bring out Iran from international isolation. Nevertheless, Iran will have to wait for almost a year to yield the financial returns of the deal, while the six major world powers will most probably reap the benefits of the lower cost of oil immediately.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 05 October 15
Q1 & Q2 2016 DELIVERY SWAPS DECLINED M-M AND W-W THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2015 delivery decreased $0.36 per ton (0.85%) month over month to US$ 42.12 per ton. The ...
Monday, 05 October 15
Q1' 16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED US$ 48.05 PER TON
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down US$ 0.47 (0.96 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap is ...
Monday, 05 October 15
SMALL DECLINE IN 2014 SHIP OPERATING COSTS - MOORE STEPHENS
Total annual operating costs in the shipping industry fell by an average of 0.8% in 2014. This compares with the 0.3% average fall in costs recorde ...
Sunday, 04 October 15
THE INDO-INDIA FREIGHT MARKET REMAINS UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com: The BDI closed on Friday (2 Oct 2015) at 889 points, down by 54 points compared to previous Friday's closing ( 24 Sept 2015) of 9 ...
Friday, 02 October 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE UNITED STATES DECREASED THIS WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.5 million shor ...
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Planning Commission, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PTC India Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
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