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Tuesday, 04 August 15
SHIPPING CYCLES - A CHESS GAME YOU DON'T WANT TO LOSE - CLARKSONS
 Ingmar Bergman’s classic movie The Seventh Seal is about a knight who, during the Black Death, challenges Death to a chess match, in the hope that while the game continues he can put off his demise. This grim epic could be seen as a metaphor for the daunting progress through long shipping cycles, as one risk-laden move in the toxic chess game follows another.
August 2007 – The Game Starts
Today’s cycle started eight years ago in 2007. It was an epic year. Capesize earnings averaged over $110,000/day and merchant shipbuilding investment reached a record $229 billion (excluding offshore). But there was good reason to be apprehensive. In August the first signs of the financial crisis hit Europe, as interbank investors grew paranoid about the vulnerability of their counterparties to CDO exposure, bringing Eurodollar trading to a halt. Meanwhile analysts were worried that the Chinese super-boom would peak out after the Olympic Games in 2008. So although dry bulk investors were still making money and ordering ships, the solitary chess game with destiny had already started.
Mounting A Comeback
Seven years later the chess game is still going on. The financial crisis got off to a more dramatic start than anyone anticipated. In 2008 as panic swept through financial markets and trade credit became almost unobtainable, the world economy, including China, came precariously close to meltdown. But fortunately this time the politicians eased through the crisis successfully. China mounted a heroic infrastructure programme which gave bulkers a very decent boom in 2009-10. Following this the market fluctuated, but reached decent levels in late 2011 and again in late 2013.
Not Deadly Or Distressed?
As recessions go so far the game with destiny has gone quite well. Since the end of 2007 Capesize earnings have averaged $32,300/day and the market has soaked up 490m dwt of new bulkers. In 2013, 104m dwt of bulkers were ordered. So someone in the industry believed bulkers would win their chess game.
But in 2015 the game changed. Capesize earnings averaged only $6,212/day in the first half. For the first time signs of real distress are apparent. After 8 years, dry bulk sentiment finally collapsed and bulker orders fell from 16m dwt in January 2014 to 0.05m dwt in June 2015. A helpful step towards market recovery, but it leaves the shipyards with a problem. Over the last 8 years bulkers were a third of shipyard workload (see inset pie chart). Although tankers and container ships are still being ordered, they show no sign of filling the gap left by bulkers.
Dance Macabre
So there you have it. Bulkers have finally made a meaningful move towards better times by cutting investment. But the game isn’t over yet. They still need a strong world economy and continued Chinese import growth. Meanwhile a new chess game with destiny is getting started, this time in the shipyards as they try to plug the bulker gap. Maybe the game’s not over yet. So if you want a nice relaxing summer, our advice is don’t watch The Seventh Seal.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 12 May 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP; DECLINED M-O-M AND W-O-W
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 lost week over week and month on month, this past week.
The Q3 swap was declined US$ 0 ...
Tuesday, 12 May 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS: LOST W-O-W; GAIN M-O-M
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 increased month over month and decreased week over week.
The Q3 swap h ...
Monday, 11 May 15
DRY BULK CARRIER ORDERS CRASH TO A TWENTY YEAR LOW - CLARKSONS
In the last four months dry bulk orders have fallen to 0.4m dwt per month, the lowest level since the 1990s. This is a massive 98% reduction from t ...
Monday, 11 May 15
HBA PRICE DIPS FURTHER; LOWEST RECORDED SINCE JANUARY 2009
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down Indonesian coal benchmark prices to US$ 61.08 per MT in May ...
Monday, 11 May 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP; INCREASED M-O-M; DECLINED W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery gained US$ 0.62 per MT (1.41%) month over month and lost US$ 0.88 week on w ...
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Showing 3026 to 3030 news of total 6871 |
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- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GMR Energy Limited - India
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