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Tuesday, 04 August 15
SHIPPING CYCLES - A CHESS GAME YOU DON'T WANT TO LOSE - CLARKSONS
 Ingmar Bergman’s classic movie The Seventh Seal is about a knight who, during the Black Death, challenges Death to a chess match, in the hope that while the game continues he can put off his demise. This grim epic could be seen as a metaphor for the daunting progress through long shipping cycles, as one risk-laden move in the toxic chess game follows another.
August 2007 – The Game Starts
Today’s cycle started eight years ago in 2007. It was an epic year. Capesize earnings averaged over $110,000/day and merchant shipbuilding investment reached a record $229 billion (excluding offshore). But there was good reason to be apprehensive. In August the first signs of the financial crisis hit Europe, as interbank investors grew paranoid about the vulnerability of their counterparties to CDO exposure, bringing Eurodollar trading to a halt. Meanwhile analysts were worried that the Chinese super-boom would peak out after the Olympic Games in 2008. So although dry bulk investors were still making money and ordering ships, the solitary chess game with destiny had already started.
Mounting A Comeback
Seven years later the chess game is still going on. The financial crisis got off to a more dramatic start than anyone anticipated. In 2008 as panic swept through financial markets and trade credit became almost unobtainable, the world economy, including China, came precariously close to meltdown. But fortunately this time the politicians eased through the crisis successfully. China mounted a heroic infrastructure programme which gave bulkers a very decent boom in 2009-10. Following this the market fluctuated, but reached decent levels in late 2011 and again in late 2013.
Not Deadly Or Distressed?
As recessions go so far the game with destiny has gone quite well. Since the end of 2007 Capesize earnings have averaged $32,300/day and the market has soaked up 490m dwt of new bulkers. In 2013, 104m dwt of bulkers were ordered. So someone in the industry believed bulkers would win their chess game.
But in 2015 the game changed. Capesize earnings averaged only $6,212/day in the first half. For the first time signs of real distress are apparent. After 8 years, dry bulk sentiment finally collapsed and bulker orders fell from 16m dwt in January 2014 to 0.05m dwt in June 2015. A helpful step towards market recovery, but it leaves the shipyards with a problem. Over the last 8 years bulkers were a third of shipyard workload (see inset pie chart). Although tankers and container ships are still being ordered, they show no sign of filling the gap left by bulkers.
Dance Macabre
So there you have it. Bulkers have finally made a meaningful move towards better times by cutting investment. But the game isn’t over yet. They still need a strong world economy and continued Chinese import growth. Meanwhile a new chess game with destiny is getting started, this time in the shipyards as they try to plug the bulker gap. Maybe the game’s not over yet. So if you want a nice relaxing summer, our advice is don’t watch The Seventh Seal.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 19 August 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS CONTINUE FLAT TREND LINE THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and flat week over week, this past week.
The 4Q swap was decli ...
Tuesday, 18 August 15
DRY BULK: MARKETS HAVE CONTINUED TO BE SEVERELY CHALLENGED - CLARKSONS
The dry bulk markets have continued to be severely challenged with freight rates falling during the period to below operating expense. The Baltic D ...
Tuesday, 18 August 15
1Q'16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FALLS BELOW $54 A TON
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
Tuesday, 18 August 15
2Q' 16 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $43 PER MT W/E 14 AUGUST
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down $ 1.08 per MT (-2.46%) month over month to US$ 42.82 per mt. The swap ...
Monday, 17 August 15
TROUBLED DRY BULK MARKET FACES TURMOIL AS CHINESE COAL IMPORTS REMAIN WEAK - BIMCO
The demand for coal in China continues to diminish. So much in fact that India is expected to succeed China as the world’s largest imp ...
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Planning Commission, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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