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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 13 November 15
WEAK CHINA POWER DEMAND DAMPENS COAL CONSUMPTION - FITCH
The weak growth in China's electricity consumption in 2015, together with increasing non-thermal power generation capacity are exerting more pr ...
Friday, 13 November 15
DRY BULK, IT IS HARD TO MAINTAIN AN OPTIMISTIC VIEW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF MONTHS - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The dry bulk owners looking for cover remained under pressure for size segments across the board. With Capes closing off the week as ...
Friday, 13 November 15
WEEKLY US COAL PRODUCTION DECLINES TO 16.5 MMST; SLIDE 14.9% Y-Y: EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.5 million shor ...
Thursday, 12 November 15
FOREIGN COAL MINE ACQUISITION - STRATEGY VERSUS OPPORTUNITY FOR INDIAN UTILITIES - DIPESH DIPU
The acquisition market for thermal coal assets abroad is dull. Sellers of all hues are in the market; some are actively scouting for buyers while o ...
Thursday, 12 November 15
PORT OF NEWCASTLE'S COAL EXPORT VOLUME UP IN OCTOBER 2015
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $1.254 billio ...
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- White Energy Company Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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