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Wednesday, 15 July 15
WEEKLY SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The last few weeks have been rather strenuous for Greece and China, each for their own reasons, affecting most markets around the world. In Greece we witnessed some of the most historical moments of the last forty years. Having just avoided a financial meltdown and with a new agreement from Greece’s creditors on the table, one can only hope that long-awaited reforms will slowly bring back stability and trust.
China, the world's second biggest economy, witnessed a 30 percent slide in its stock market since mid-June. Following these massive losses, unprecedented measures were taken in order to sooth investors' concerns about the stability of the economy. Whilst we have seen a strong rebound last week, we expect volatility to remain for some time.
Tanker Market
There has been a lot of activity in the tanker market both in terms of new building orders as well as second hand sales. On top of that, yesterday it was reported that Iran reached a landmark nuclear deal with six countries that would see an easing of sanctions against the country and a gradual increase in its oil exports. In an already oversupplied market with the Saudi output at record highs, the oil price should move further down. Cheap oil will be followed by increased consumption and storage and will possibly provide the grounds for further macroeconomic growth. We already see oil and oil product trading to grow at higher levels than the previous years.
Dry
On the dry bulk side, earlier in the year with the BDI at its lowest historical levels, we argued that there was a plausible scenario that can play out in 2015, in which as long as a series of logical events occurred, things could shift towards the right direction of a stronger and more balanced 2nd half of 2015. Now, without seeing anything remarkable, we are experiencing for the past month a higher utilization of the fleet, less idle time, period charters that are coming into play and in general a more balanced situation. On the sale & purchase front one thing is for sure, a modern Japanese Handysize, Supramax or Panamax bulk carrier will now certainly find buyers.
In an environment of depressed demand and ship oversupply and in the middle of the summer, can this market upturn be explained?
On the demand side things are very weak albeit stable and in line with forecasts. Japan's and China's steel production and coal trading are contracting, the iron ore trade is anemic and the seaborne trade forecast is to remain at the levels we had in 2014. IMF in its world economic outlook for 2015 (data from April) is keeping its forecast for a 3.5% growth (compared to 3.4% in 2014).
On the supply side however, things now look much brighter since we have seen a lot of demolition activity, a fair amount of cancellations and conversions of new building orders and very limited replenishment of new orders. Since January 2015 the dry fleet has increased a mere 0.75% and even less in terms of deadweight. As a matter of fact, in terms of deadweight, the Capesize fleet has diminished by about 1%, the Panamax fleet has grown about 1%, the Supramax/Ultramax fleet has grown by 4% and the lastly the Handysize has contracted by around 0.4%.
Despite the weak growth of the demand for seaborne trade so far - which has nonetheless remained in line with estimates/forecasts - the growth of the fleet (the supply side) has been lagging behind allowing for higher utilization of the dry fleet. So the numbers show a different picture than what many people tend to have in their minds and the scenario that we described back in February is starting to play out.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 17 July 15
DO CANCELLATION RIGHTS UNDER VOYAGE CHARTERPARTY SURVIVE RE-NOMINATION OF LOAD PORT? - INCE&CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Do cancellation rights under voyage charterparty survive re-nomination of load port?
St Shipping & Transport Inc ...
Thursday, 16 July 15
INDONESIA'S HBA HITS ALL-TIME LOW OF $59.16 PER METRIC TON IN JULY 2015
COALspot.com - The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia revised down Indonesian coal benchmark price once again to US$ 59.16 pe ...
Thursday, 16 July 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS DECLINE W-O-W, M-O-M
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The Q3 swap was down US$ ...
Wednesday, 15 July 15
IRAN OIL RECOVERY TO TAKE YEARS, BUT COULD START IN 2016 - FITCH
Iranian crude oil production is likely to increase in 2016 but will take a number of years to reach its previous peak, Fitch Ratings says.
The ...
Wednesday, 15 July 15
SAS TO BUILD 108 KM ROAD FOR COAL IN JAMBI, SAYS JAKARTA POST
Jambi Governor Hasan Basri Agus said on Sunday that mining company PT Sinar Anugerah Sukses (SAS) would develop a 108-kilometer road with a width o ...
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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