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Wednesday, 15 July 15
WEEKLY SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The last few weeks have been rather strenuous for Greece and China, each for their own reasons, affecting most markets around the world. In Greece we witnessed some of the most historical moments of the last forty years. Having just avoided a financial meltdown and with a new agreement from Greece’s creditors on the table, one can only hope that long-awaited reforms will slowly bring back stability and trust.
China, the world's second biggest economy, witnessed a 30 percent slide in its stock market since mid-June. Following these massive losses, unprecedented measures were taken in order to sooth investors' concerns about the stability of the economy. Whilst we have seen a strong rebound last week, we expect volatility to remain for some time.
Tanker Market
There has been a lot of activity in the tanker market both in terms of new building orders as well as second hand sales. On top of that, yesterday it was reported that Iran reached a landmark nuclear deal with six countries that would see an easing of sanctions against the country and a gradual increase in its oil exports. In an already oversupplied market with the Saudi output at record highs, the oil price should move further down. Cheap oil will be followed by increased consumption and storage and will possibly provide the grounds for further macroeconomic growth. We already see oil and oil product trading to grow at higher levels than the previous years.
Dry
On the dry bulk side, earlier in the year with the BDI at its lowest historical levels, we argued that there was a plausible scenario that can play out in 2015, in which as long as a series of logical events occurred, things could shift towards the right direction of a stronger and more balanced 2nd half of 2015. Now, without seeing anything remarkable, we are experiencing for the past month a higher utilization of the fleet, less idle time, period charters that are coming into play and in general a more balanced situation. On the sale & purchase front one thing is for sure, a modern Japanese Handysize, Supramax or Panamax bulk carrier will now certainly find buyers.
In an environment of depressed demand and ship oversupply and in the middle of the summer, can this market upturn be explained?
On the demand side things are very weak albeit stable and in line with forecasts. Japan's and China's steel production and coal trading are contracting, the iron ore trade is anemic and the seaborne trade forecast is to remain at the levels we had in 2014. IMF in its world economic outlook for 2015 (data from April) is keeping its forecast for a 3.5% growth (compared to 3.4% in 2014).
On the supply side however, things now look much brighter since we have seen a lot of demolition activity, a fair amount of cancellations and conversions of new building orders and very limited replenishment of new orders. Since January 2015 the dry fleet has increased a mere 0.75% and even less in terms of deadweight. As a matter of fact, in terms of deadweight, the Capesize fleet has diminished by about 1%, the Panamax fleet has grown about 1%, the Supramax/Ultramax fleet has grown by 4% and the lastly the Handysize has contracted by around 0.4%.
Despite the weak growth of the demand for seaborne trade so far - which has nonetheless remained in line with estimates/forecasts - the growth of the fleet (the supply side) has been lagging behind allowing for higher utilization of the dry fleet. So the numbers show a different picture than what many people tend to have in their minds and the scenario that we described back in February is starting to play out.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 17 July 15
DO CANCELLATION RIGHTS UNDER VOYAGE CHARTERPARTY SURVIVE RE-NOMINATION OF LOAD PORT? - INCE&CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Do cancellation rights under voyage charterparty survive re-nomination of load port?
St Shipping & Transport Inc ...
Thursday, 16 July 15
INDONESIA'S HBA HITS ALL-TIME LOW OF $59.16 PER METRIC TON IN JULY 2015
COALspot.com - The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia revised down Indonesian coal benchmark price once again to US$ 59.16 pe ...
Thursday, 16 July 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS DECLINE W-O-W, M-O-M
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The Q3 swap was down US$ ...
Wednesday, 15 July 15
IRAN OIL RECOVERY TO TAKE YEARS, BUT COULD START IN 2016 - FITCH
Iranian crude oil production is likely to increase in 2016 but will take a number of years to reach its previous peak, Fitch Ratings says.
The ...
Wednesday, 15 July 15
SAS TO BUILD 108 KM ROAD FOR COAL IN JAMBI, SAYS JAKARTA POST
Jambi Governor Hasan Basri Agus said on Sunday that mining company PT Sinar Anugerah Sukses (SAS) would develop a 108-kilometer road with a width o ...
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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