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Wednesday, 24 June 15
PANAMAXES: THE OUTLOOK REMAINS NEGATIVE AS DEMAND FOR COAL IS DIMINISHING - YANNIS OLZIERSKY
 As we get closer to the end of June, we can safely say that the 1st half of the year is leaving the dry bulk market with a bitter taste that we all wish to forget. The BDI was fluctuating around its lowest point ever recorded for the entire first half. The last two weeks though have given a much needed lift to the market, which nonetheless will need further momentum to make some actual difference in both sentiment and returns. Whether this momentum will be found in order to stabilize market rates at least above OPEX, is something that is hard to predict. However, and since we are coming out of the "dusk" of H1 and slowly moving towards the "dawn" of H2, a recap in titles could be of interest to our readers.
Starting with Capers, levels are currently at the highest point since January. With the Chinese iron ore inventories at their lowest point since November 2013 and with the price of iron ore at slightly above $60/ton, a mild recovery in terms of traded volume is expected. On the supply side, heavy demolition activity in H1 (more than 10mill dwt have been demolished since the beginning of the year) together with slippage, cancellation and conversions of dry bulk orders to tankers or containers, is restricting the growth of an already oversupplied market. On the other hand, China’s decision to support Vale’s iron ore expansion plan, may lead to an increase in iron ore supply. One would think that such decision would help the market recover on the back of tonne miles increase, however since most of Vale's transported iron ore will be shipped in Valemax ships the positive effect on rates will be hard to materialize.
On the Panamaxes, although rates have not seen today's levels since December 2014, the outlook remains negative as demand for coal is diminishing. Environmental concerns in many nations and especially in China have pushed towards usage of cleaner resources of energy. As a result, coal imports have declined significantly YoY and a revival is hard to be expected despite the fact that other big economies like India are increasing demand but doing so in a more moderated level. On the other hand, some support could be founded in the grain market on the back of the increased production of exporting countries like US, Canada and Brazil.
On the smaller sizes, Supramaxes have found support in the Atlantic thanks to grains and petcoke cargoes. India's high petcoke imports from the US have helped increase tonne miles in the sector, while in the Pacific, rates are also correcting upwards on the back of bauxite and nickel ore imports, with China being behind most of the latter. Handysizes are also trying to take advantage of the increase of shipments of both grains and other minor bulk commodities, however the impact on freights is moderate as charterers prefer to use bigger vessels for the transportation of commodities, especially for the Transatlantic trade.
In general, the market is being in doldrums and nothing exciting should be expected during the next couple of months, some spikes could give glimpses of hope. However, the next big thing will most probably be the fourth quarter of this year, a time when the market is traditionally advancing. What will happen this year remains to be seen with great interest. Therefore from the “dusk” of H1 till the “dawn” of the H2 nothing really crazy should be expected, apart maybe from some humans turning into vampires somewhere in a bar close to the Mexican borders...
By Yannis Olziersky
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 20 July 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS GAIN WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 1.18 (2.27%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Sunday, 19 July 15
BDI GAINED AND CROSSED 1000 MARK THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI gained and crossed 1000 mark after many months this Friday. The BDI was up almost 20 pct and closed 1048 points on 17 July 20 ...
Saturday, 18 July 15
INTERVIEW : FRANZ ESCALANTE, CHIEF OF INFORMATION SYSTEMS, MINERA CHINALCO, PERU
We are interested in the technology of Autonomous trucks, the new-generation trucks are not remote controlled, they are truly autonomous - Franz Es ...
Friday, 17 July 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. INCREASES SHARPLY FOR THE WEEK ENDING JULY 11
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.4 million short ...
Friday, 17 July 15
INDONESIAN POWER-STATION COAL SWAPS DECLINE CONTINUES THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 declined month on month and week over week, this past week.
The Q3 swap was declined $ ...
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- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
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