We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Thursday, 18 June 15
DRY BULK SHIPPING: LOWEST FLEET GROWTH IN 10 YEARS MAY NOT PROVE ENOUGH AS DEMAND IS NOT KEEPING PACE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 The demand side of things in the dry bulk market seems unable to keep pace with even the slightest fleet growth, a sign of the demise that the industry is suffering from. According to BIMCO’s latest short-term outlook, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index), started 2015 at 771 points, only to retreat to a historical low of 509 points on the 18th of February. “Since then it has improved but only on a couple of occasions has it been above 600. The market conditions are devastating and volume growth in 2015 on key trades is negative. The lack of coal imports into China is taking centre stage, and lost volumes are difficult to make up elsewhere. The (still) positive iron ore demand is overshadowed in significance as the negative coal market makes headlines”, said the report.
According to BIMCO, “dry bulk is under pressure on the commodity side and since the beginning of 2014 iron ore prices have slid. That development has made some of the mining companies alter their expansion plans of placing more iron ore on the market, when demand is obviously not as strong to uphold the former price level. From USD 140 per ton down to 42 in early April. Since then spot Australian Iron Ore FOB prices (Source: Commodore Research) has improved. By end-May, Australian iron ore (63% iron content) was priced at just above USD 60 per ton. This is very positive as it proves demand is there despite steel production growth being negative in China (-1.7%) as well as rest of the world (-1.9%) during Q1. In 2014, Chinese steel demand contracted for the first time since 1995. As the Chinese economy is now changing, so is its steel demand. The knock-on effect for the dry bulk market will depend on the extent to which imported ore takes market share from domestically mined ore as well as absolute level of steel production. Current forecasts for global iron ore demand growth in 2015 is positive, at 3% (Source: SSY)”, said the report.
Meanwhile, the other significant commodity, coal, is doing really bad in China while improving in India. “Total Chinese coal imports for the first four months in 2015 came in at 68 million tons (Source: Chinese customs). Down by 38% – same period last year. Both thermal and coking coal markets as well as lignite are suffering. The landed cost of coal into China at the end of May is not favouring imports despite very low freight rates. For thermal coal, SSY expects Chinese imports to contract by 30 million tons, while expectations for Indian imports is a plus at 20 million tons. Last year China imported a total of 291 million tons, distributed with 165 million tons of thermal coal, 62 million tons of coking coal and 64 million tons of lignite. These numbers include seaborne as well as land borne imports”, said BIMCO.
In terms of supply, since the turn of the year, the dry bulk fleet as a whole has only grown by 0.5% and since early February, the fleet has not grown at all. This has happened as the demolished volumes have matched the number for newbuildings being delivered. According to BIMCO, “the Capesize fleet is actually smaller today than half a year ago (beginning of November). The development in Panamax and Handysize segment is flat, whereas the Handymax/Supramax segment has grown as we expected it to. In spite of 1 million DWT of Handymax capacity being demolished, 6 million has been delivered, equal to a growth in supply for that sub-segment of 2.9% for the year to date. For the year 2015, BIMCO expects supply growth to be at 3.8%. This is a downward revision of our estimation three months ago, and it rose out of our adjustment of demolition volumes expected for 2015. As the poor freight market bites harder at an extended time, BIMCO anticipates 30 million DWT to leave the fleet during 2015 and 17 million DWT to have been sold for demolition end of May. Owners have dug deep in the first five months of 2015 whilst continued devastating freight market keep demolition volumes high. An improved freight market is expected to cool demolition interests swiftly”.
Additionally, “another positive development is found on the contracting side. 35 new orders have been placed at global shipyards so far this year (1.8 mill. DWT). 7 Panamaxes, 12 Handymaxes, 16 Handysizes and no Capesizes have been added to the order book, which now stands at 1,750 ships with a combined capacity of 142 million DWT. This is to the shocking fact of 1,981 ships which were contracted during 2013-2014″.
In its outlook for the market, BIMCO said that “it is a small consolation that Indian coal imports may go up by 20 million tons, when Chinese imports drop by 30 million tons for the second year running. Despite a very bad sentiment in the market, BIMCO expects volume to increase as we move into Q3. More Brazilian iron ore and grains (wheat and coarse) moving into the market as the soya season abates, should on an overall level, prohibit the market to go into reverse – if volumes contract. The momentous imbalance between supply and demand continues to worsen in spite of a noteworthy 10-year low supply growth rate. 160 million DWT of new orders placed in 2013/14 can only do harm when demolition activity fails to slash any records by a never-seen-before margin. As the demand growth for dry bulk seaborne transportation seems to weaken too, potentially even on a permanent basis as China changes gear, the industry must adapt to become profitable again. Wait-and-see strategies may turn out to take too long. If we are to believe that current utilisation levels are just around 70%, new orders should not just cool down for a while, they must be sensitively counterbalanced with demolition for a number of years, not just a few quarters”.
It concluded its analysis by noting that “for the coming months: June-August, BIMCO expects the market challenges to stick. The demand side is so weak right now, with China reducing coal import by 40% that it dwarfs most of the positive aspects of the market. On the upside we see owners limiting fleet growth by increasing demolition of obsolete tonnage. Whether this work on the supply side will prove to be effective enough to improve the fundamental balance only time will tell”.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Wednesday, 01 July 15
BEIJING HAS OFFICIALLY EXTENDED BY TWO YEARS ITS SUBSIDY PROGRAM TO SUPPORT LOCAL SHIPPING COMPANIES IN SCRAPPING THEIR OLD TONNAGE - INTERMODAL
Last week, Beijing has officially extended by two years its subsidy program to support local shipping companies in scrapping their old tonnage in w ...
Tuesday, 30 June 15
Q1'16 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED $ 43.45 PER MT
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 declined month on month and flat week over week, this past week.
The Q3 swap was decli ...
Monday, 29 June 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS UP SLIGHTLY MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 0.57 (1.11%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap is a ...
Monday, 29 June 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP SLIGHTLY UP MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery up $ 0.49 per MT (1.08%) month over month to US$ 45.77 per mt. The swap was ...
Saturday, 27 June 15
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS STEADY EARLIER IN THE WEEK; SOFTEN INTO WEEK'S END
COALspot.com: The freight market remain steady earlier in the week, but towards end of the week BDI and BCI shows some signs of softening.
The ...
|
|
|
Showing 2951 to 2955 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Coal Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
|
| |
| |
|
