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Wednesday, 03 June 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS
Intermodal logoFor some time now the Dry Bulk market has been severely affected by China’s slowing GDP growth rate that occurs in the background of increased supply of dry bulk tonnage. Daily rates for Capes are now well below $10,000 from over $200,000 in 2008, while the BCI index reached its historic low at 311 points during January 2015.

Hence, it comes as no surprise that numerous shipowners consider the demolition market as a possible solution to dispose of old large sized vessels that fail to cover their operating expenses at market’s current levels. But to conclude a perfect storm, the steel market, that is the main driving force behind prices offered by cash buyers and recycling yards for the acquisition of vintage tonnage for demolition, is currently under strong pressure as well. The latter stem from increased exports of cheap Chinese steel that is not absorbed domestically and has flooded the Indian sub-continent. Moreover, prices offered by recycling yards are also negatively affected by the large volume of bulkers that are available to be sold for scrap.

The aforementioned situation has resulted in prices offered nowadays for wet tonnage to range from 210 to 390, depending on the destination, and for dry tonnage from 210 to 370. Just a year ago prices ranged from 310 to 500 for the dry tonnage and 325 to 510 for the wet, a difference of more than 100 dollars per ltd.

Nevertheless, the situation in the Dry Bulk market for the Capes is so difficult that we have seen a large number of vessels finding their way to recycling yards even at these low price levels.  In May alone, 15 Capes have been sold for scrap, while the same number of Capesize vessels went for scrap during the entire first five months of last year. This is something that generally characterizes the market as demo activity across all segments is higher to the one observed last year.

At this point in time and given the situation in the Dry Bulk market one should expect the increased trend of vintage bulkers heading for demolition to continue up to the point where the freight market reaches a more viable equilibrium regarding supply and demand of tonnage. Having in mind the large volume of the Dry sector orderbook this will definitely take some time and at the same time it will come as no surprise if current demo price levels slide further. Nonetheless, and despite any additional price softening that could be due, the demo market is expected to continue witnessing healthy activity, as long as the situation in the Dry Bulk market remains tricky.
By Vassilis Logothetis
Research Analyst


Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations


Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima


Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.

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