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Friday, 29 May 15
DRY BULK MARKET IS THE VICTIM OF A SHIFT IN DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 The fall in dry bulk freight rates is attributed, in large part, to the substantial decrease of China’s thermal coal imports, a major commodity trade in the past, combined with the large supply base of dry bulk carriers, in need of employment. At the same time, as shipbroker Allied Shipbroking pointed out in its latest weekly analysis, the rise of new markets for coal, such as India, isn’t happening as fast as the market needs to recover.
Allied noted that thermal coal was plagued “by an increasing amount of strict environmental policies on a global scale and a rapid drop in prices of competing fuels, in effect seeing its seaborne trade sag ever since mid-2013. The main country which has influenced this drop in demand has been China, which has taken a strict approach on curbing its consumption, in an effort to overturn the level of air pollution in its major cities. Yet as things looked to be in their most dire, we have started to see a new giant emerge amongst the major thermal coal imports. India has rapidly taken up the role of bringing up the market, wishing to take advantage of this excess supply that has become available in the market and at the same time feeding its growth needs with this relatively cheap energy source”.
George Lazaridis, Head of Market Research & Asset Valuations with Allied Shipbroking noted that “as things stand now, India is set to see an 11% increase in its imports, rising from 180 million tonnes in 2014 up to a forecast of around 200 million tonnes for 2015 according to statements by consultancy group Venerable Energy Solutions. Things look even more optimistic as expectations are now for a rise in India’s imports of thermal coal of up to 250 million tonnes within the next 3-4 years based on the current domestic supply situation as well as its growing consumption levels. This is an equivalent of an increase of around 39% from its 2014 levels, something which would not only make it the world’s largest importer of thermal coal but a main driver in demand for thermal coal’s seaborne trade. This is not even the most bullish of estimations being thrown around in the market, with commodities trader Glencore having put a forecast for India’s thermal coal imports to rise up to 300m tonnes by 2020. While some may see these as fairly optimistic forecasts, especially as rumours circulate of an enhanced availability of domestically sourced coal and a gradual cutting back of India’s reliance on thermal coal as well, there might be some truth in the more imminent market prospects as its demand will certainly dictate a strong growth rate up until 2017″, he noted in his analysis.
Meanwhile, “at the other end of the spectrum you have China, a country which has already cut back on in its imports since 2013, making an immediate effect with its absence which was especially well noted via dry bulk freight rate conditions in the Pacific basin. This trend has shown to continue at an equal magnitude this year, with Chinese imports already set to close at an annual decline of over 23% (or equivalent to 52 million tonnes from the 229 million tonnes imported in 2014 according to the International Energy Agency). This still leaves a market wanting, as the math still indicates to a combined import volume that is notably weaker than that of 2014. At the same time, and although India’s demand is set to strengthen, China’s demand for thermal coal imports is expected to continue its sharp drop over the coming years, leaving the market with an ever increasing gap to fill”, Lazaridis said.
He concluded his argument by noting that “the positive side to see is that China’s retreat on some of the major trading dry bulk commodities is already starting to be countered by the new and upcoming behemoths of economic growth. On the negative side, the transition is not happening nearly as fast as would be needed to keep the freight market buoyant and although new trade matrices might benefit the overall tonne-mile demand, all indications continue to point to a slower pace in growth in demand for these major dry bulk commodities”.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 01 June 15
35,000 MW POWER PLANTS TO BOOST COAL CONSUMPTION - JP
The government’s program to develop 35,000 megawatt (MW) power plants will increase domestic coal consumption, which currently stands at arou ...
Monday, 01 June 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP; Q1'16 CLOSED LOWER COMPARED TO Q3'15
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery gained US$ 0.36 per MT (0.80%) month over month. The swap was closed at US$ ...
Monday, 01 June 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP: GAINED W-W, M-M; Q1'16 CLOSED HIGHER THAN Q3'15
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery up US$ 1.15 (2.26%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap is a f ...
Sunday, 31 May 15
CAPE AND PANAMAX SEGMENTS SLIDE CONTINUES
COALspot.com: The BDI was up about 0.5 pct week on week and closed at 589 points while the cape index was fell 0.73 pct and closed at 810 po ...
Friday, 29 May 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. ALMOST FLAT THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.1 million short ...
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- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Coal Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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