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Wednesday, 20 May 15
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - JOHN N. COTZIAS
 Since Early October 2014 the tanker market has been experiencing a very positive momentum and has continued its strong performance so far in 2015. Freight rates in the wet tanker market remained solidly firm and somewhat increasing over the past weeks.
The VLCC TD3 daily is today in excess of $80,000/day, reaching 5 year highs and has improved phenomenally on a y-on-y comparison as around this time last year it was averaging at -$3,000/day. Cargo volumes are at elevated levels with oil production in Saudi Arabia holding at record highs and more crude cargo exports coming out of Iraq’s Basrah. Market expectation is that there is will be an upward trend in VLCC rates in June and it is worth noting that nearly 1 out of 3 VLCC’s taken on T/C during 2015 is being used for storage mostly in the AG, some in Spore, W. Africa & the Med. Suezmaxes were partly assisted by the bullish sentiment of the rising VLCC market and saw the Black Sea-Med TD6 route averaging around $55,000/day during Q12015, which is 70% up from the average during Q12014. Rates for Aframax Tankers are slightly softening over the past month, but the average spot rate is still holding above $25,000/day, with stable activity expected in the short to medium term as well.
Spot earnings for MR tankers are close to $23,500/day while the LR1’s average spot rates are ranging slightly higher at around$25,000/day. LR2’s product tanker rates in the Q12015 averaged the highest for the same period since 2006. These rates have been supported mainly by new refineries in the Middle East, which in turn utilized long haul product exports. Low oil prices have also kept naphtha prices down, making it a competitive alternative to LPG for petrochemical plants feedstock, which ultimately led to strong Asian naphtha imports.
Newbuilding and secondhand prices are also on the rise and in general we are seeing a great volume of transactions on quality modern wet tonnage, as keen buyers appear ready to act on tonnage that could benefit from the strong freight market. More than 105 Secondhand and Resale Tankers of 25.000dwt and above have changed hands since Jan. For the same period we have seen newbuilding orders for more than 130 tankers. The existing tanker orderbook is in excess of 680 vessels, 78% of which is scheduled to be delivered before 2017. At the same time, the healthy returns of the past six months gave tanker owners practically no incentive to send their vessels for scrap. In fact, only 8 large sized tankers went for demo so far in the year, while these where all well above 20 years of age.
According to International Energy Agency (IEA), European oil demand in the first quarter of this year grew at its fastest pace in almost 20 years, increased by 185,000 b/d compared to the Agency’s previous estimates, while low prices and colder weather, were as expected the main reasons behind this strong uptrend. At the same time, China, the world’s second-largest oil consumer behind the United States according to the IEA, is forecasted to consume a little below 12million barrels of oil per day in 2017, with oil consumption doubling since 2004 and oil import dependency up from 30% in 2000 to about 57% in 2014.
So given that oil prices will keep fairing at their lower new normal in the short to medium term, sustaining this way the strong demand for longer, the weight that scheduled deliveries will place on the market is expected to be partly offset, allowing the sector to keep enjoying firm rates with potential of further upside very possible .
By John N. Cotzias
SnP Broker, Intermodal
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 05 May 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS MOVE NORTH THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 increased month over month and week over week.
The Q3 swap has increas ...
Monday, 04 May 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP Q1'16 PRICES SLIGHTLY LOWER COMPARED TO Q3'15 PRICE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery gained US$ 1.38 per MT (3.12%) month over month and US$ 0.93 week on week. ...
Monday, 04 May 15
Q1' 2016 CFR SOUTH CHINA THERMAL COAL SWAP CLOSED HIGH THAN 2015 DERIVATIVES
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 0.15 (-0.29%) per MT month over month and increased US$ 0.07 ...
Sunday, 03 May 15
DRY BULK INDICES WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market was flat to weak for the week starting from 27 April. The BDI was fell around 2.17% closed at 580 points.
...
Thursday, 30 April 15
IRON ORE EXPORTS: A DANGEROUS RACE? - CLARKSONS
The surge in iron ore exports in recent years has resulted in a significant decrease in iron ore spot prices, which dipped to a ten year low of bel ...
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The University of Queensland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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