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Wednesday, 20 May 15
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - JOHN N. COTZIAS
 Since Early October 2014 the tanker market has been experiencing a very positive momentum and has continued its strong performance so far in 2015. Freight rates in the wet tanker market remained solidly firm and somewhat increasing over the past weeks.
The VLCC TD3 daily is today in excess of $80,000/day, reaching 5 year highs and has improved phenomenally on a y-on-y comparison as around this time last year it was averaging at -$3,000/day. Cargo volumes are at elevated levels with oil production in Saudi Arabia holding at record highs and more crude cargo exports coming out of Iraq’s Basrah. Market expectation is that there is will be an upward trend in VLCC rates in June and it is worth noting that nearly 1 out of 3 VLCC’s taken on T/C during 2015 is being used for storage mostly in the AG, some in Spore, W. Africa & the Med. Suezmaxes were partly assisted by the bullish sentiment of the rising VLCC market and saw the Black Sea-Med TD6 route averaging around $55,000/day during Q12015, which is 70% up from the average during Q12014. Rates for Aframax Tankers are slightly softening over the past month, but the average spot rate is still holding above $25,000/day, with stable activity expected in the short to medium term as well.
Spot earnings for MR tankers are close to $23,500/day while the LR1’s average spot rates are ranging slightly higher at around$25,000/day. LR2’s product tanker rates in the Q12015 averaged the highest for the same period since 2006. These rates have been supported mainly by new refineries in the Middle East, which in turn utilized long haul product exports. Low oil prices have also kept naphtha prices down, making it a competitive alternative to LPG for petrochemical plants feedstock, which ultimately led to strong Asian naphtha imports.
Newbuilding and secondhand prices are also on the rise and in general we are seeing a great volume of transactions on quality modern wet tonnage, as keen buyers appear ready to act on tonnage that could benefit from the strong freight market. More than 105 Secondhand and Resale Tankers of 25.000dwt and above have changed hands since Jan. For the same period we have seen newbuilding orders for more than 130 tankers. The existing tanker orderbook is in excess of 680 vessels, 78% of which is scheduled to be delivered before 2017. At the same time, the healthy returns of the past six months gave tanker owners practically no incentive to send their vessels for scrap. In fact, only 8 large sized tankers went for demo so far in the year, while these where all well above 20 years of age.
According to International Energy Agency (IEA), European oil demand in the first quarter of this year grew at its fastest pace in almost 20 years, increased by 185,000 b/d compared to the Agency’s previous estimates, while low prices and colder weather, were as expected the main reasons behind this strong uptrend. At the same time, China, the world’s second-largest oil consumer behind the United States according to the IEA, is forecasted to consume a little below 12million barrels of oil per day in 2017, with oil consumption doubling since 2004 and oil import dependency up from 30% in 2000 to about 57% in 2014.
So given that oil prices will keep fairing at their lower new normal in the short to medium term, sustaining this way the strong demand for longer, the weight that scheduled deliveries will place on the market is expected to be partly offset, allowing the sector to keep enjoying firm rates with potential of further upside very possible .
By John N. Cotzias
SnP Broker, Intermodal
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 01 June 15
35,000 MW POWER PLANTS TO BOOST COAL CONSUMPTION - JP
The government’s program to develop 35,000 megawatt (MW) power plants will increase domestic coal consumption, which currently stands at arou ...
Monday, 01 June 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP; Q1'16 CLOSED LOWER COMPARED TO Q3'15
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery gained US$ 0.36 per MT (0.80%) month over month. The swap was closed at US$ ...
Monday, 01 June 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP: GAINED W-W, M-M; Q1'16 CLOSED HIGHER THAN Q3'15
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery up US$ 1.15 (2.26%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap is a f ...
Sunday, 31 May 15
CAPE AND PANAMAX SEGMENTS SLIDE CONTINUES
COALspot.com: The BDI was up about 0.5 pct week on week and closed at 589 points while the cape index was fell 0.73 pct and closed at 810 po ...
Friday, 29 May 15
DRY BULK MARKET IS THE VICTIM OF A SHIFT IN DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The fall in dry bulk freight rates is attributed, in large part, to the substantial decrease of China’s thermal coal imports, a major commodi ...
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- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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