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Wednesday, 20 May 15
IRON ORE PRICES TO REMAIN WEAK ON LOW DEMAND, HIGH OUTPUT - FITCH
Fitch Rating whiteIron ore prices will stay low for several years due to increasing supply, weak demand growth in China and the slower-than-expected closure of high-cost mines, Fitch Ratings says.

We expect market leaders BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Vale to continue increasing production in 2015 despite falling prices, as they are also the lowest-cost producers. This is likely to outweigh the impact of any shut-downs among higher-cost producers in the near-term. We also expect annual growth in Chinese crude steel production to slow to around 1% or less in 2015.

These factors are reflected in our recent decision to cut the price assumptions we use for rating purposes. Our iron ore spot price assumptions on a cost and freight basis are now USD50 per tonne in 2015 and 2016, compared to USD65 and USD75 previously. We have also lowered our long-term price assumption to USD70 from USD80.

In the short-term, prices are also likely to remain volatile as markets reassess their expectations for Chinese steel output, the rate at which higher-cost producers are forced to exit the market and a potential slowing of capacity growth among the major iron ore producers.

The rate of shut-downs among higher-cost producers has been slowed by cyclical cost reductions as cost pressures in regions such as Western Australia have fallen. The drop in oil prices has also helped ease pressure on some miners and means that overall companies will stay in the market for longer. Government efforts to support the industry, including a halving of the resource tax on domestic iron ore producers, should also slow the rate of iron ore mine closures in China in 2015.

Other high-cost producers, particularly state-owned companies, are also likely to continue operating despite having costs well over USD50 a tonne. In the fourth-quartile of the cost curve, we expect companies with nearly 100 million tonnes of annual production to continue operating. This will transfer some pressure to miners in the third-quartile, which includes smaller higher cost Australian producers and also companies such as African Minerals and London Mining in West Africa.


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