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Monday, 11 May 15
DRY BULK CARRIER ORDERS CRASH TO A TWENTY YEAR LOW - CLARKSONS
 In the last four months dry bulk orders have fallen to 0.4m dwt per month, the lowest level since the 1990s. This is a massive 98% reduction from the 23m dwt peak in orders in December 2007, and probably the sharpest decline in recent decades. Not really a surprise in a market where Capesize bulkers are struggling to earn $4,000/day, but a timely relief to investors with ships on the order book.
Investment Fever
This investment collapse marks the end of a remarkable phase of bulk carrier history. During the last decade, 724m dwt of new bulkers have been ordered, around 70m dwt/year. Just to put that in perspective, during the previous decade ordering averaged about 20m dwt/year.
The 5 years from 1996 to 2001 were disappointing to investors, who ordered only 1.2m dwt/month. At the time this was seen as normal, and included a spike in 1999, when investors snapped up Panamax bulkers for $19-$22m. These were probably the most profitable bulkers ordered in the industry’s post-war history. Upon delivery they sailed straight into the bulk shipping boom. Proof that “crazy investors” are not always crazy.
Softly, Softly
The next phase from 2002 to November 2006 was quite restrained, considering the rise in freight rates. Ordering edged up, averaging 2.8m dwt/month. As earnings eased in 2006, many assumed the boom was over, but they were wrong and what happened next was unprecedented. As earnings escalated owners threw caution to the wind, and the big bulker cash machine drew investors from outside shipping. In December 2007, ordering peaked at 23m dwt, and in 2007 to 2014, investment averaged 6.8m dwt/month (81m dwt/year), an astonishing number for a period mostly in global recession.
Carry On Investing
Despite the onset of the global downturn in 2008, two more bulker investment spikes followed in 2010 and 2013. With surplus bulker capacity, and China’s growth engine easing off, it’s hard to explain this investment on strictly economic grounds. Easier, perhaps, to understand the change in expectations. The memory of spectacular bulker earnings had been fresh in the minds of some investors, but a decade later and that dream is fading.
The collapse in bulkcarrier investment is a particular problem for shipyards. Many builders in China and Japan surfed the wave of bulkcarrier investment and bulkers still account for around half of tonnage on order globally. In today’s sluggish world economy, that is going to be a difficult gap to fill. The fact that bulker prices are around 5% down this year, and ordering has virtually stopped tells its own story.
Big Bulker Investment Boom
So there you have it. The spectacular run of dry bulk investment which kicked off in early 2003 has finally ended. Then China’s imports were growing at 27% a year, a big difference from the 3% growth in 2014. This is disappointing, but as serious shipping investors know, in good markets and bad, there’s still an awful lot of cargo that has to be moved around the world – it’s just a matter of who moves it.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 13 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
The EU governments in an effort to face their economic crisis individually are facing lack of political cohesion. This reflects back to each econom ...
Tuesday, 12 May 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP; DECLINED M-O-M AND W-O-W
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 lost week over week and month on month, this past week.
The Q3 swap was declined US$ 0 ...
Tuesday, 12 May 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS: LOST W-O-W; GAIN M-O-M
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 increased month over month and decreased week over week.
The Q3 swap h ...
Monday, 11 May 15
HBA PRICE DIPS FURTHER; LOWEST RECORDED SINCE JANUARY 2009
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down Indonesian coal benchmark prices to US$ 61.08 per MT in May ...
Monday, 11 May 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP; INCREASED M-O-M; DECLINED W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery gained US$ 0.62 per MT (1.41%) month over month and lost US$ 0.88 week on w ...
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
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- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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