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Friday, 24 April 15
IS INDIA THE 'NEW CHINA' WHEN IT COMES TO THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
PanamaxThe dry bulk market has been feeling the “heat” of China’s slowdown and together with the industry’s own failings, with oversupply plaguing the sector, has witnessed earnings drop to histocical lows. As such, with China’s nnual economic growth rate slowing down to a six-year low of 7pct in the first quarter, while at the same time many believe that even this is not giving a true picture of the slowdown, pressure and concerns continue to mount as to the prospects of the market this year.

However, according to Mr. George Lazaridis, Head of Market Research & Asset Valuations with shipbroker Allied Shipbroking, “yet this seems to be only half the picture investors are looking at. At the same time as the Chinese economy starts to get to grips with this new reality, Narendra Modi, India’s Prime Minister has been making ground breaking progress to push India’s economy to the top podium position in terms of annual GDP growth. During the past week he has been meeting with Australia’s Prime Minister, Tony Abbott, to strike a compelling deal which would promote further trade in dry bulk commodities such as iron ore and coal. This deal comes at a point were India’s Economy is already expected to expand by more than China’s for the first time since 1999″.

According to Lazaridis, despite the above, “many in the industry remain unconvinced as to the extent that India could dethrone the current Champion amongst the BRIICS and take leading role in reinvigorating the global economy. The reality is, that in order to accomplish this India must do much more than just momentarily surpass China in terms of economic growth. India’s govern-ment is still plagued by corruption and bad organization, while a lack of central govern-ment planning in the style of China, makes it all the more difficult to properly direct development efforts and achieve the high goals needed to direct a complete restructur-ing and long term growth trajectory. Yet even without these it is proving to push for a significant role in trade which is likely to expand over the next couple of years and while it might not surpass the Chinese economy in this decade (or the next) it is starting to shape up and become a serious contender that could inevitably lead to yet another fast paced global commodities rally in order to feed its growth needs”, he noted.

According to Allied’s analyst, “at the same time much is to be said about the recent critics regarding China’s figures as well. It may well be certain that the current figures point to troubles ahead for the re-mainder of 2015, but looking deeper into what makes up these figures, you can note that economic growth has started to become more reliant on internal consumer spend-ing rather than just mere investment. This means that its economy is maturing, becom-ing more self-reliant rather than only export oriented and making it in turn more sus-tainable in the long-run”.

He went on to note that “at the same time the much anticipated switch from a cheap “copy-cat” producer over to a research and innovation producer means that it is start-ing to take the next step in its development cycle similar to what Japan and S. Korea had done back in the 80’s and 90’s. Nevertheless, the Chinese government does not seem to be willing to sit back, relax and rely on only this to keep its internal engine go-ing. Yesterday, China’s central bank announced that it has lowered the reserve-requirement ratio of banks by a further 1 percentage point, which according to esti-mates should free up around 194 billion U.S. dollars to boost lending further”.

Concluding his analysis, Lazaridis pointed out that “all these are positive signs, but they seem to be a more long-term effect with likely out-comes to be more evident to the shipping markets within 2016 rather than during the course of this year. Even so, what must be taken out of all of this is that the troubled pace isn’t looking likely to last too long”.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News


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