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Wednesday, 22 April 15
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
 The current environment we experience as a result of low crude oil prices is characterized by the increased demand for petroleum products in OECD countries (expected to surpass that of the developing countries by 2020), the increased output of refineries and consequently lower price of refined products.
As we have now entered Q2 and still enjoy some very good returns in the tanker market, we are looking back at the MR returns and how the MR fleet unfolds from 2012 to 2017. We see that an average of 126 vessels is delivered per year with a standard deviation of 32 vessels. The returns in the sector have increased due the factors mentioned above as well as the opening of more and more refineries around the world.
150 vessels, almost half of the orderbook, are due to be delivered throughout this year, while in 2016 and 2017 we expect 123 and 25 vessels respectively. Given the overwhelming slowdown in newbuilding activity over the past 9 months and based on the current economic projections we expect the slowdown in orders to persist for a bit longer.
In the meantime we see that the current environment do not support SnP activity, as Sellers push for more seeing their margins improve and buyers are still considering if the premium is worth at this stage.
The MR fleet up to 5 years old is expected to be around 647 vessels at the beginning of 2017. The main characteristic of the majority of the ships that were built post 2013, is that they are of eco design, which currently earns them a premium of around 10% in the t/c contracts compared to non-eco ships. According to our data the time charter fixtures concluded during the period 2012 up to now with a time horizon of 4 months up to 5 years, we observe that the majority concerns T/C contracts of over 1 year period.
The average 1 yr T/C rate for max 5yr old vessels is around 13,850 /day and it has been on an upward path since last year, while the trend for 2 yr T/C is also rising with an average rate of around usd 13,970/day. We also observe that starting 2013 and throughout 2015 rates have been increasing regardless of vessel age in both these period contracts, while 3-yr period contracts are currently being fixed at around usd16,000/ day for vessels up to ten years old, while the existence of the eco design in this case has made no difference in terms of premium.
The remaining of the year will be challenging for spot players as they will have to cope with the scheduled deliveries that will be added in the active service fleet, while in regards to new entrants – especially private equity funds – we could be seeing more aggressive movements in the form of acquisition of modern units on en-block basis. If this proves to be the case, it will also translate to more aggressiveness in fixing long term contracts as well. Obviously charterers will take advantage of the modernization of the fleet and we anticipate that they will hold back and focus on periods of 2-3 years on modern eco imo units at sub usd 16,000 levels.
Stratos Tiniakos
Tanker Chartering Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 14 April 15
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS FOR Q4 DELIVERY CRASHES THROUGH $44
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q2 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The Q2 swap was declined US$ 2.25 (4.77%) ...
Monday, 13 April 15
Q2 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $45.28 PMT; DECLINED 7.50% M-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 3.67 per MT (-7.50%) month over month and US$ 0.39 week on wee ...
Monday, 13 April 15
Q4 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT US$ 50.97
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 4.50 (-8.05%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.12 (-0 ...
Sunday, 12 April 15
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT RATE IS EXPECTED TO BE SOFT
COALspot.com: The freight market was steady, however the BDI was declined slightly week over week.
BDI dropped 1.36 pct and closed at 580 poin ...
Friday, 10 April 15
US COAL PRODUCTION FELL 4.7% W-O-W : EIA
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.4 million short ...
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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