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Thursday, 16 April 15
SHIPPING DEMAND TO SUFFER AS CHINESE SLOWDOWN CONFIRMED SAYS BIMCO'S CHIEF SHIPPING ANALYST - BIMCO
 The Chinese economy grew by 7.0% y-o-y in the first quarter of 2015, according to National Bureau of Statistics in China. This is the weakest overall growth in six years. Growth during the quarter was strongest in the industrial sector (6.4%) and the service sector (7.9%), whereas the primary sector (3.2%) contributed to a lesser extent.
The headline data confirms the economic outlook for China, which remains a slowing economy that is going through a transition from being heavily reliant on exports, manufacturing and construction to being one that runs on domestic consumer demand.
The development is ongoing at high speed and data on industrial production in March and total retail sales of consumer goods in the first quarter confirmed this change is very much on. Industrial production grew by 5.6% in March y-o-y, which is the lowest since the end of 2008. On the other hand total retail sales in the first quarter grew by 10.6%.
What does this means to shipping?
Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO, Peter Sand, says:
“The transition of the Chinese economy is affecting the shipping industry a lot. During the past decades of strong economic development, Chinese foreign trade have been growing tremendously. Dry bulk in particular has benefitted and crude oil tankers too on the imports side. While container shipping on intra-Asian routes and westbound trades has benefitted from massive exports of manufactured goods”.
“What we have seen in shipping in recent years and is going to experience more in future is the knock-on effect from China becoming a relatively more closed economy, driven forward by domestic demand rather the foreign demand like i.e. the US. In short this translates into a lower level of shipping demand going forward than what we got accustomed to during the past decades”
“BIMCO often mentions that the future holds a “New Normal” of shipping demand, one where slightly less trade in generated from global economic growth – as compared to previously, as the composition of the global GDP is changing. What we see from China today is evidence on just that.”
IMF has revised its World Economic Outlook
The IMF (International Monetary Fund) has kept is forecast for global growth unchanged from its January estimate at 3.5% for 2015, while upward adjusting the 2014 estimate to 3.4% (3.3%).
The “New Normal” is also evident from the GDP growth rates in recent years, where advanced economies in particular have suffered from low growth in the aftermath of the financial and economic crisis that broke out in 2008.
For 2015 the advanced economies is staging a comeback, as IMF forecast 2.4% in 2015 against 1.8% in 2014, whereas the emerging markets and developing economies are set to grow by 4.3% against 4.6% last year.
“There are no major surprises in IMF’s forecast. Uneven growth and a lower future potential output level is all known stuff. Amongst the minor surprises the US is downward revised on the back of a higher valued dollar and lower oil production than previously expected.”
“India is also worth mentioning amongst the minor surprises as IMF projects 7.5% growth in both 2015 and 2016. This means India surpass Chinas expected growth of 6.8% and 6.3% for same years. However, as the Chinese economy is five times bigger than India, the shipping industry remains most reliant on the developments in China”, adds Peter Sand.
Source: BIMCO | Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 24 March 15
RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR DELIVERY Q2 CLOSED $ 1.87 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q3 CLOSING PRICE
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 declined month over month and week on week.
The Q2 swap has dropped U ...
Tuesday, 24 March 15
ARGUS MEDITERRANEAN SOLID FUELS 2015 CONFERENCE | 2-3 JUNE, ISTANBUL
Press Release: Argus Media is proud to announce Argus Mediterranean Solid Fuels, which will be held in Istanbul,on 2-3February.
Argus produces ...
Monday, 23 March 15
IS OIL GETTING READY TO PLUNGE BELOW $40? - FORBES
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In my last crude oil market update in late-February, I expressed my skepticism toward the oil price rebound. Since then, ...
Monday, 23 March 15
Q4' 2015 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS DECLINED 6.79% M-O-M; 2.55% W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 3.42 per MT (-6.33%) month over month and US$ 1.37 (-2.77%) we ...
Monday, 23 March 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP: Q3 DELIVERY HAS FALLEN 7.93% MONTH-ON-MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 4.09 (-7.06%) per MT month over month and US$ 2.00 (-3 ...
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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