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Thursday, 16 April 15
SHIPPING DEMAND TO SUFFER AS CHINESE SLOWDOWN CONFIRMED SAYS BIMCO'S CHIEF SHIPPING ANALYST - BIMCO
 The Chinese economy grew by 7.0% y-o-y in the first quarter of 2015, according to National Bureau of Statistics in China. This is the weakest overall growth in six years. Growth during the quarter was strongest in the industrial sector (6.4%) and the service sector (7.9%), whereas the primary sector (3.2%) contributed to a lesser extent.
The headline data confirms the economic outlook for China, which remains a slowing economy that is going through a transition from being heavily reliant on exports, manufacturing and construction to being one that runs on domestic consumer demand.
The development is ongoing at high speed and data on industrial production in March and total retail sales of consumer goods in the first quarter confirmed this change is very much on. Industrial production grew by 5.6% in March y-o-y, which is the lowest since the end of 2008. On the other hand total retail sales in the first quarter grew by 10.6%.
What does this means to shipping?
Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO, Peter Sand, says:
“The transition of the Chinese economy is affecting the shipping industry a lot. During the past decades of strong economic development, Chinese foreign trade have been growing tremendously. Dry bulk in particular has benefitted and crude oil tankers too on the imports side. While container shipping on intra-Asian routes and westbound trades has benefitted from massive exports of manufactured goods”.
“What we have seen in shipping in recent years and is going to experience more in future is the knock-on effect from China becoming a relatively more closed economy, driven forward by domestic demand rather the foreign demand like i.e. the US. In short this translates into a lower level of shipping demand going forward than what we got accustomed to during the past decades”
“BIMCO often mentions that the future holds a “New Normal” of shipping demand, one where slightly less trade in generated from global economic growth – as compared to previously, as the composition of the global GDP is changing. What we see from China today is evidence on just that.”
IMF has revised its World Economic Outlook
The IMF (International Monetary Fund) has kept is forecast for global growth unchanged from its January estimate at 3.5% for 2015, while upward adjusting the 2014 estimate to 3.4% (3.3%).
The “New Normal” is also evident from the GDP growth rates in recent years, where advanced economies in particular have suffered from low growth in the aftermath of the financial and economic crisis that broke out in 2008.
For 2015 the advanced economies is staging a comeback, as IMF forecast 2.4% in 2015 against 1.8% in 2014, whereas the emerging markets and developing economies are set to grow by 4.3% against 4.6% last year.
“There are no major surprises in IMF’s forecast. Uneven growth and a lower future potential output level is all known stuff. Amongst the minor surprises the US is downward revised on the back of a higher valued dollar and lower oil production than previously expected.”
“India is also worth mentioning amongst the minor surprises as IMF projects 7.5% growth in both 2015 and 2016. This means India surpass Chinas expected growth of 6.8% and 6.3% for same years. However, as the Chinese economy is five times bigger than India, the shipping industry remains most reliant on the developments in China”, adds Peter Sand.
Source: BIMCO | Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 28 April 15
Q2' 15 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED 4.18% HIGHER FROM MONTH AGO
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 increased month over month and slightly week over week.
The Q2 swap ha ...
Monday, 27 April 15
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION FELL BELOW ONE BILLION SHORT TONS IN 2013 - EIA
COALspot.com: For the first time in two decades, U.S. coal production fell below one billion short tons to 984.8 million short tons in 2013 from 1, ...
Monday, 27 April 15
Q3' 2015 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED 3.69% LOWER THAN Q2' 2015 PRICE OF $46.36
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery gained US$ 0.19 per MT (0.41%) month over month and US$ 0.78 week on week. ...
Monday, 27 April 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP SLOWLY IMPROVED THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 0.74 (-1.41%) per MT month over month and increased US$ 0.43 ...
Sunday, 26 April 15
DRY BULK MARKET KEPT IMPROVING THIS WEEK; CAPES AND PANAMAXES SHOW A SLIGHT PICKUP IN RATES
COALspot.com: The freight market was stable this week as BDI closed at 600 points after improving 0.50 percent week over week.
The cape ...
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
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