We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 04 March 15
KEEP CALM AND INVEST IN DRY - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Keep Calm and Carry On was originally a motivational poster, intended to raise the morale of the British public, produced by the British government in 1939 in preparation for the Second World War. In today's shipping environment where the daily headlines are in the likes of “excess vessel supply continues to weigh on the dry bulk market” and “slower growth in steel output and reduced coal demand contribute to a declining freight rate environment”, we also need all the motivation we can get. Companies’ revenues have declined and many operators are in the red, some are chopping charter rates, we hear about bankruptcies, restructurings and anyone can easily paint a very bleak outlook for the next couple of years.
According to the IMF, global growth in 2014 was 3.3% and in 2015 - 2016 it is projected to be 3.5 and 3.7 percent respectively. It is notable that the 2015-16 projections were revised downwards by 0.3% in October 2014, reflecting the reassessment of prospects in China, Russia, the euro area, and Japan, as well as weaker activity in some major oil exporters because of the sharp drop in oil prices. The United States is the only major economy for which growth projections have been raised.
In January 2014 the dry bulk fleet (over 20,000tons dwt) stood at 8,979 vessels or 697,63million tons deadweight. During 2014 the net growth (deliveries/additions minus demolitions/removals) was 5% in terms of deadweight (a closer proxy to the carrying capacity). Given the fact that there is high correlation between global growth and seaborne trade, unless the GDP growth is higher than the fleet growth, then simply put “the ships are always too many for the cargoes”. With the world growth at 3.3% in 2014 it is evident that the world fleet has been under-utilized and supply has exceeded demand.
In 2015 demolition levels and slippage/cancellations/conversions will be the key. Let’s look at some numbers. The current dry fleet is at 737.65 million tons deadweight while the dry orderbook for 2015 stands at 69million tons deadweight. Assuming that only 80% of this will be delivered (due to slippage, cancellations, conversions etc.) the increase will be 55.2mil tons deadweight. If demolition activity, which has kicked off the year encouragingly, ends up being similar to the levels of 2012, it will be a huge relief valve. In 2012 according to our data about 30million tons dwt was scrapped so if this repeats, the net growth of the fleet will be about 25million tons dwt or 3.4%. This is quite marginal against the projected global growth for 2015 but it may very well signal a balanced supply-demand outlook. So any upside on either the supply (more cancellations, more demolition) or the demand side (the boost to global demand from lower oil prices could be greater than is currently factored into the projections) can reverse the current situation.
The obvious question is if demolition activity can indeed reach 2012 levels. Well, the fleet of ships older than 25 years stands at 29.4mil tonnes i.e. a shade lower than the “required” volume that needs to be scrapped; another 40mil tonnes deadweight are the ships between 20-25 years. In the first two months of 2015, we have already seen much younger vessels sent for scrap. So the relief valve is there and needs to be kept open. Upcoming regulations that will require the shipowners to invest in upgrading their assets will also help in that direction since older assets will not be worth the investment.
So there you have it, there is a quite plausible scenario that can play out this year that can shift things towards the right direction and as long as a series of logical events occur, then we may be looking at a stronger and more balanced 2nd half of 2015. So, Keep Calm and Invest in Dry.
By Theodore Ntalakos
Newbuildings / SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Tuesday, 10 March 15
OIL PRICE FORECASTING - IGNORE THE EXPERTS: COLIN MARSHALL
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Experts put themselves on a pedestal, making claims to have special forecasting abilities for oil price trends. They, too ...
Tuesday, 10 March 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS HEADING SOUTH
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 0.24 per MT (-0.47%) month over month and US$ 1.52 (-2.93%) we ...
Tuesday, 10 March 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA POWER-STATION COAL SWAPS DECLINE
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery fell US$ 0.42 (-0.74%) per MT month over month and declined US$ 1.00 &nbs ...
Monday, 09 March 15
INDONESIA GREETS INDIA RATE CUT AS GOOD FOR EXPORTS - GLOBEASIA
Indonesian commodity producers and economists have hailed the Indian central bank’s rate cut as good for boosting exports from Southeast Asia ...
Monday, 09 March 15
CHINA'S SUPREME COURT ISSUES NEW JUDICIAL INTERPRETATION ON SHIP ARREST AND JUDICIAL SALE OF SHIPS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
China is not traditionally a popular jurisdiction for ship arrest. However, Members and clients with ships calling at por ...
|
|
|
Showing 3151 to 3155 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
|
| |
| |
|
