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Wednesday, 11 February 15
BDI HITTING THE ALL-TIME LOW; FFA MARKETS NOT SHOWING ANY POSITIVE SIGNS
 With the BDI hitting the all-time low and with FFA markets not showing any positive signs for a possible recovery in the near future, pessimism is still prevailing across the Dry Bulk sector. Average rates for all sizes are now trading below OPEX levels, rendering owners exposed to substantial loses. Apart from the existing tonnage surplus, for which we have talked a lot during the last years, anemic global growth and demand for dry bulk commodities have also pushed the BDI to its lowest historical point.
The decline of coal trade due to low demand from China is causing a big “headache” to Capesize and Panamax owners. Imports to China have been significantly reduced, since the local government is trying to shift away its dependency to coal for electricity production, to other renewable sources of energy. Despite that other countries like India have increased coal imports but that has so far proved inadequate to substitute entirely the fall in Chinese imports. As a result, many Panamaxes and capers, which were engaged in coal trade, are shifting to iron ore trade where in terms of transferred volume we are witnessing a healthy trade growth despite the fact that rates here have also plummeted.
Iron ore exports to China from Australia and Brazil rose as stockpiles in Chinese ports had hit a 12-month low in the beginning of the year. Low iron ore price together with cheap transportation cost and Chinese New Year festivities around the corner is the reason behind the increased volumes of iron ore imports. This increase has helped the Capesize market to slightly pick up from its historical lower point ever recorded in January and witness improved rates, which nonetheless are still far from what could be described as decent.
Headlines regarding the dry bulk market are mostly negative these days, however in this bearish market there are some news which could be interpreted as positive signs, something that market needs since this “crisis” is not only driven by its fundamental problems but also by sentiment. On one hand, iron ore imports could be soon increasing as demand from the Chinese steel industry is expected to rise on the back of the recently announced plan by the Chinese government to invest heavily (around USD1 trillion) in infrastructure projects as an attempt to support growth.
Secondly, activity in dry bulk demolition activity has increased the last month as a result of declining freight rates. As a matter of fact, in just one month’s time the number of Capesize vessels that was sold for scrap reached the number of Capesizes scrapped during the whole of 2014. Under this freight environment it is very likely that this trend will continue, helping the market alleviate some of the abundant tonnage. Finally, new building activity is declining because of both the current negative environment and also lack of finance to support these projects as a result of this environment. Also some contracted dry projects which have not commenced are now being swapped to wet projects allowing the substantial dry bulk order book to take a much needed breath.
A “perfect storm” is currently taking place in the Dry Bulk market. Overcapacity, anemic global growth, lack of demand for dry bulk cargoes and bearish sentiment amongst players, have all come together and pushed the market to its lowest point since 1986. But let’s not forget that during “perfect storms” there are always opportunities, as these are the exact points in a cycle when asset values hit attractive lows that makes investing suitable for asset play opportunities and fleet renewals, especially for those who have sat in the sideways all these years waiting for this exact “perfect storm”.
By Yannis Olziersky
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 07 April 15
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP KEEPS DROPPING; DROPPED 2% W-W
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q2 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The Q2 swap was declined US$ 2.44 (5.14%) ...
Tuesday, 07 April 15
Q3 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 55.96 PMT; DOWN 8.40% M-M
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 declined month over month and week on week.
The Q2 swap has declined U ...
Monday, 06 April 15
INDONESIA'S HBA FIXED AT US$ 64.48 PMT FOR APRIL DELIVERY; DOWN 4.84% M-M
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down Indonesian coal benchmark prices to US$ 64.48 per MT in Apr ...
Monday, 06 April 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP DECLINED 12% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 6.23 per MT (-12%) month over month and US$ 0.86 (-1.85%) week ...
Monday, 06 April 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FALL CONTINUES
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 5.96 (-10.37%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.98 (- ...
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
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