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Friday, 30 January 15
CAN BULKER CONVERSIONS SPOIL THE TANKER MARKET'S PARTY? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS

Oversupply of tonnage has always been in the back of the head of ship owners when it comes to taking advantage of favorable market conditions. As such, whenever a particular market fares well, like has been the case for many tanker sub-segments as of late, most notably the larger tanker ship types, concerns are quickly creeping up, as more and more owners from different markets are flocking up to grab a piece of the action.

This particular period of time is no exception, with the tanker market benefiting both from a moderate fleet expansion, as well as from low oil prices which are boosting demand from non-oil producing countries. On the other hand, most dry bulk owners, especially those owning capesize bulk carriers are faring much worse. What’s even worse is that, as shipbroker Poten & Partners noted in a recent report, the dry bulk orderbook for 2015 and 2016 delivery remains high, with Capesizes expected to be hit worse than other ship types. As such, Poten raised the question of whether we could witness more conversions of large bulk carriers to Aframax or Suezmax tankers. After all, Scorpio Group announced a while back that that it had reached agreements with shipyards in South Korea and Romania to modify six newbuilding contracts for Capesize bulk carriers into newbuilding contracts for LR2 product tankers. It has been reported that several other owners are currently negotiating with shipyards as well.

According to Poten though, one should be cautious when it comes to expecting too many additional conversion of such nature to come to fruition. “For these deals to materialize a number of elements need to fall into place. Firstly, the yard needs to be able to build and have current designs for both bulkers and tankers. Secondly, these yards need to be willing to switch the order. This will probably be possible only for owners with a certain stature that have ordered a series of vessels at that yard. The shipbuilder will want to ensure that these conversions do not significantly interrupt planned construction and procurement. Shipyards are also keen to maintain their profit margins when changing from one vessel-type to the other”, Poten said.

The analyst added that as of January 1, 2015 there were some 336 Capesize bulk carriers on order. For 69 of these vessels (about 20%) construction has already started, so conversion to another vessel type is no longer an option. “Even if construction has not yet started, a switch to another vessel type is only feasible if the same yard has an existing design and a proven track record of building such vessels. A careful review of the shipyards where these capesize vessels are on order shows that out of the 38 yards only 11 are also (capable of) building similar-sized tankers. Excluding these “dry cargo only” yards removes another 104 vessels from the conversion pool”. Poten defined a Capesize bulk carriers as a vessel of at least 120,000 dwt.

Poten went on to take a look at ship owners, i.e. owners which have experience in both the tanker and the dry bulk markets, as the most likely to move forward with such conversions. According to the analyst, “the field is whittled down even further, since 113 of the Capesize vessels remaining on order are owned by dry cargo specialists. Based on the above analysis we estimate that out of the 336 Capesize vessels currently on order, about 50 ships are potential conversion candidates and a significant portion of these orders are already subject to active negotiations. More conversions will likely be negotiated, however, at the moment, we don’t expect that this development will become so widespread that it will pose an immediate threat to the health of the tanker market”, Poten concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News



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