We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Thursday, 29 January 15
CHINA ENERGY DEMAND MUST BE REVIEWED DUE TO FUNDAMENTAL ECONOMIC CHANGES - WOOD MACKENZIE
 New patterns emerging as energy demand growth decoupled significantly from GDP growth for the first time in 2014
Wood Mackenzie says 2014 was a significant year for China as economic rebalancing led demand growth - for a range of major energy commodities - and GDP growth decoupled significantly for the first time. Over the past two decades, commodity demand growth had maintained relatively proportionate annual increases to GDP growth. In 2014 however the pace of power, gas, coal and diesel demand increase fell more drastically than the slight GDP moderation, beyond expectations. Wood Mackenzie expects gas demand will recover in one to two years as the key drivers of slower growth are mainly cyclical but power, coal and diesel demand will see their outlook change notably over the long-term due to major structural changes in the economy and policy. Global energy sector will need to identify which changes are structural or cyclical in to determine future demand patterns and opportunities.
China's GDP grew by 7.4% in 2014 compared to 7.7% in 2013, a modest decline. Meanwhile, compared to 2013 power demand growth fell by almost half; Gas demand growth fell by more than 8%-point; Coal demand barely grew; and Diesel demand actually contracted for the first time in more than a decade. (refer to chart). Ms Cynthia Lim, Principal Asia Economist for Wood Mackenzie says, "7.4% is still a large year-on-year GDP increase for any economy so this fall in commodity demand is counter-intuitive and we have only seen the tip of the iceberg. The Chinese government is moving away from the post-2008 investment binge and gradually moving towards a more moderate but sustainable consumption-led economic growth. There are two aspects of rebalancing: one, away from investment towards consumption, particularly in the developed coastal region; and two, a shift in economic gravity away from the coast and towards the inland region. Both trends will have significant implications on commodity demand shifts. An important indicator for the energy industry to watch will be the weakness of industry versus the strength of the consumer in China."
The research company expects Industrial recovery and related investment will remain subdued in 2015-2016 but should see robust growth through the medium-term supported by urbanisation. Key sectors such as coal and steel are weighed down by overcapacity, tighter environmental regulations and the property market slowdown. While the government has relaxed both house purchase restrictions and credit conditions through 2014, recovery in real estate will be slow as inventory levels remain high and potential buyers stay on the side line due to market uncertainty.
Wood Mackenzie analyses which sectors will be most affected in the near-term (one to two years), medium term (two to seven years) and long-term (over eight years):
Power - Sustained change due to economic rebalancing
The short-term weakness in the industrial sector will continue to subdue power demand growth, especially as high inventory levels are reduced. Mr Gavin Thompson, Principal Analyst for APAC Gas & Power research says, "Industrial output will eventually recover from overcapacity and weak demand but China's rebalancing away from industry to the service sector will have a longer-term structural impact. In tandem with the geographic rebalancing of China's economy, regional power patterns will also change with higher demand growth concentrated in the western provinces where industrialisation processes are focused, compared to coastal markets." Wood Mackenzie forecasts that power demand year-on-year in the western regions will rise at around twice the pace of coastal markets through the medium term of 2-7 years, with significant implications for capacity and fuel choices.
Coal - Remains king but impacted by structural lower power demand growth
The pace of annual coal demand growth slowed to 4-5% in 2012 and 2013 from (what the previous year), particularly in coastal markets with near-zero growth in demand for power generation. However, Mr Thompson asserts, "Coal remains king in China but growth has been severely reduced, due to industrial weakness as well as cyclical weather patterns that saw higher rainfall boost hydro output. Through the short-term, coal-fired generation will likely be muted by lower power demand, environmental policies and a rise in non-coal generation including hydro. Longer-term , coal demand pace and patterns will be impacted by structural changes, with demand rising fastest from inland provinces and the acceleration of ultra high voltage (UHV) transmission lines to export power to the coast."
Gas - demand growth will rebound but cyclical low oil prices and weather will cause near-term pain
Over the past decade gas demand in China increased by 16% a year on average between 2004-2013. Last year however, gas demand growth slowed notably from over 13% in 2013 to around 8% in 2014. Mr Thompson explains, "This was influenced more by cyclical factors. In addition to slowing GDP growth, evolving environmental policies, higher hydro output, mild winter weather in northern China and high domestic gas prices relative to oil were key factors that saw gas demand growth fall sharply. In 2015, the government's decision on domestic gas price reform will be a key influence on demand. While we expect domestic demand growth over the next few years to return to historic levels, a swift return to double-digit growth may not be achievable without lower city gate gas prices."
Oil products - weaker diesel demand outlook to stay
2014 was the fourth straight year of a decoupling relationship between China's GDP and oil demand growth as the effects of the 2009 stimulus began to fade. However, growth in oil demand has varied by oil product since then given each product's distinct drivers: Diesel demand is estimated to have contracted 0.7% in 2014 as commercial transportation demand reduced. Mr Thompson explains, "We believe we are now witnessing a structural change in China's diesel demand as the economy rebalances away from heavy industry. In contrast, gasoline demand, which reflects personal car ownership, maintained a robust growth of 8% in 2014. Healthy growth momentum for gasoline demand will likely be sustained as the economy shifts further towards consumption."
Ms Lim concludes, "The rebalancing of China's economy will play an important role in shaping the energy demand outlook for 2015 and beyond. We believe a recovery in demand for power, coal and diesel in particular is closely tied to the industrial demand outlook. While these commodities will experience a moderate recovery in the medium term as over-capacity is reduced, the on-going transition of China's economy away from an industry-led model suggests their relationship with GDP growth will weaken permanently in the longer-run. As a result, the energy sector must keep attuned to both China's underlying changes and also shorter-term developments to position it for the changing opportunities the market offers."
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Tuesday, 20 January 15
INDONESIAN COAL OUTPUT SEEN RISING, DESPITE FALL IN ITS PRICE
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 declined month on month and week over week, but Indonesian Coal Output Seen Rising. T ...
Tuesday, 20 January 15
NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 2015 DELIVERY DECLINED 2.83% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 1.45 per MT (-2.83%) month over month and US$ 0.50 (-0.99%) we ...
Monday, 19 January 15
HBA FALL TO FRESH LOWS; COAL OVERSUPPLY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH PRICE DOWN
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down Indonesian coal bench mark price this month to US$ 63.84. T ...
Monday, 19 January 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS REMAIN WEAK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 3.37 (-5.63%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.74 (-1.29%) ...
Monday, 19 January 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q4 DELIVERY CLOSED 4% LOWER THAN Q1 DELIVERY PRICE
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q1' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The Q1 swap has f ...
|
|
|
Showing 3246 to 3250 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
|
| |
| |
|
