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Wednesday, 21 January 15
SHIFT IN INTERNATIONAL COAL TRADE TO THE PACIFIC BASIN WILL CONTINUE - IMF

COALspot.com: The shift in international coal trade to the Pacific Basin will continue, IMF said in its latest Medium-Term Coal Market Report.

Australia and Indonesia will supply the bulk of incremental thermal coal exports (approximately 60%). Australia is projected to significantly increase thermal coal exports by 5.0% per year (+55 Mtce) to 2019. Indonesian thermal coal export growth will slow over the outlook period, averaging 2.0% per year (+42 Mtce until 2019).

Meantime, IMF said that, the coal demand in China will continue to grow on average by 2.5% per year over the outlook period, however at a significantly slower rate than over the previous ten years (approximately 10% per year, on average), but, coal demand in OECD countries is projected to decrease on average by 0.6% per year from 1451 Mtce in 2013 to 1402 Mtce in 2019.

IMF further noted that, Global coal supply is forecast to increase by 752 Mtce (+2.1% per year), from 5709 Mtce in 2013 to 6462 Mtce in 2019. Incremental coal volumes in non-OECD countries amount to 686 Mtce (+2.5% per year) until 2019 – approximately 65% of which comes from China.

International seaborne hard coal trade, according to IMF, is forecast to grow on average by 3.1% per year (+212 Mtce), from 1039 Mtce in 2013 to 1251 Mtce by 2019.

Based upon this forecast, IMF further reported that, seaborne thermal coal trade will provide the biggest spark and grow by 164 Mtce (+3.2% on average per year) to 950 Mtce. Seaborne met coal trade is projected to grow by 48 Mtce (+3.0% per year), totalling 301 Mtce by 2019.

Australia will become the world’s largest coal exporter (measured by energy content) by 2019, said IMF in its recent report.

IMF also noted that, however, Chinese developments will define coal markets. The fight against pollution is now a driving force of energy policy, but the war on pollution has two sides for coal. On the one hand, diversification will decrease coal demand, but other measures could increase it, such as the coal conversion process to synthetic natural gas or liquid fuels and cleaning equipment in coal power plants.

China will be the coal giant for many years in the future. But after many years of unbelievable economic and coal demand growth, China has entered a more moderate path. Lower economic growth and also a lower energy intensive economy and higher diversification will curtail coal growth in China in the coming years. However economic growth in China needs more energy than nuclear, gas, oil and renewables can supply. Diversification efforts will lead to development of hydropower, wind, photovoltaic (PV) and nuclear capacity and gas use. Additional coal is still needed to meet energy demand, IMF concluded in its latest Medium-Term Coal Market Report.



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