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Monday, 12 January 15
FREIGHT MARKET: 2015 FLEET SUPPLY GROWTH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF CARGO GROWTH - SGX

COALspot.com: The dry bulk freight market was forced to digest a number of negatives in 2014 leading the Baltic Dry Index to fall 66% through the year, SGX says in its “ Commodities 2014 - A year of the bear” report.

According to SGX, the Capesize market was the most volatile, with average 30-day annualized volatility of 83%. While seaborne iron ore demand was strong, the market was hampered by weaker coal trade, negative macro news, tighter credit in China, and lower Indonesian exports among other factors. Looking forward, a continued high order book (relative to historical standards) paints a relatively cautious picture for the year ahead.

Hopes of a freight rate recovery were shattered with 2014 producing the second worst year in the past decade for vessel earnings, SGX noted.

The Baltic Dry Index (‘BDI’) fell 66% to end the year at 782. Across vessel types, Capesize rates closed the year down 88% from the beginning of the year. Panamax, Supramax and Handysize rates declined 53%, 38% and 39%, respectively. The BDI showed signs of recovery both in the middle of the year and in the last quarter, but both recoveries quickly stalled.

The report further said that, roughly two-thirds of dry bulk freight activity is driven by iron ore, coal and steel. While seaborne iron ore and steel demand have remained strong, the year has digested a number of negatives, including: (i) weaker coal trade as Chinese imports have declined; (ii) negative macro news and credit tightening in China; (iii) the Indonesian ban on nickel ore/bauxite/iron ore exports; and (iv) less congestion from shippers in South America. Broadly speaking, supply has outstripped demand, and in 2015 fleet supply growth is expected to remain slightly ahead of cargo growth.

In shipping, supply side dynamics manifest in two ways – (i) number of ships on seas plus the new deliveries, and (ii) speed of the vessels. In anticipation of rising demand for these dry bulkers, the shipping industry responded affirmatively on both fronts: not only were there more vessels, but many also reportedly sped up their fleets. Even though the demand for vessels in the cape segment has grown, the tonne-mile demand in 2014 shrunk, chiefly due to much of the iron ore supply being delivered on short haul routes. However, in the Panamax category, while the order book touched a 5-year high of 53% in 2010 followed by a 5 year low of 23% in June 2013, the current order book for these vessels at 33% looks a bit apprehensive given demand side challenges.

At any one time, there are about 1,000 vessels in the Singapore port.*
*Singapore Maritime Port Authority



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