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Monday, 12 January 15
SHIPPING - CHALLENGES AND RESOLUTIONS - EVA TZIMA
 Last year has without a doubt been another challenging one both for both our industry and our country. As Greece is currently dominated by election fever, we cannot but wonder what sort of challenges we could be facing in 2015, while as the bitter sweet taste the performance of our industry left us with as 2014 ended is still strong, we look back to the activity of Greek owners last year together with what could be lying ahead for the different shipping markets this year.
Greek owners were reported as Buyers in 340 of the 2014 reported second-hand sales and as Sellers in 153 of them. This trend clearly shows that despite the volatility in the freight market, Greeks were still keen on snapping second-hand tonnage during the year. At the same time they have shown a clear preference on Japanese quality units, while the softening of asset prices that has been taking place since mid-year, has also helped SnP activity, which despite the challenging conditions of the market in 2014, remained pretty much at the same levels we saw back in 2013.
As far as the following months are concerned, and while the Dry Bulk market remains under pressure, we expect SnP activity for dry bulkers to considerably soften, as most owners will choose to sit on the sidelines until they have a more clear view of what’s coming ahead. On the tankers side, where things have been considerably more upbeat, we expect buying interest for crude carriers to remain stable overall at least for the first quarter of next year, while the recent popularity of MR and LR1 tonnage seems to be holding well, despite the fact that the long list of scheduled 2015 deliveries for the former are expected to weigh down on freight rates, fact which will most certainly scale back the current upside.
Out of the 2,874 newbuilding orders that were recorded during 2014, Greek owners were reported to be behind 127 of them, which is almost a 30% decrease compared to 2013 Greek orders. The new-building market has faced an extremely challenging year in terms of activity and this has been mostly attributed to the sharp fall in dry bulker orders compared to the previous year. Following the ordering spree of 2013, newbuilding prices remained on an upward trend for almost the entire first half of 2014 and despite the fact that the performance of the dry bulk freight market missed the expectations built up during the end of 2013. This has weighed down considerably on ordering interest for conventional vessels.
Prospects for next year remain dim. Despite the fact that prices currently stand well off the highs of January, most owners currently seem completely uninterested in revisiting the prospect of placing an order. On top of that, even in sectors that are currently enjoying some good earnings, the tonnage that is due to hit the water this year, is bound to put pressure on earnings and thus will further deter owners from heading back to the yards.
On the demolition front, 1,158 vessels in total were reported scrapped in 2014, a number significantly smaller compared to 2013. The percentage of Greek owned vessels that headed for scrapping remained stable nonetheless, showing that the mentality of getting rid of vintage tonnage and in most cases replacing it with modern one is still part of the Greek mentality. The demolition market was also under pressure last year. Following the intense scrapping activity of 2013, which in some cases created fairly “young fleets”, especially within size segments in the tanker sector, limited the volume of potential scrapping candidates. At the same time and despite the fact that demo prices were kept at significantly attractive levels during the first half of the year, most owners kept holding on to the hope of better freight rates during the last quarter of 2014, thus ruling out the demolition option. On top of that and even more importantly, as cheap Chinese scrap steel has been flooding the markets since the beginning of the summer, demo buyers in the Indian subcontinent were forced to lower their bids by more than $70/ldt in a very short period of time, making the demolition option even less attractive to owners of vintage tonnage. Despite the fact that steel demand remains overall healthy amongst breaker countries, we expect the negative trend of both demo volume and prices to resume next year, especially as any measures that could potentially set a floor on Chinese steel imports are being delayed.
At the beginning of every year, people make New Year’s resolutions. Perhaps the one for our industry should be to reinvent itself, which is always a task that requires hard work but in this case might be necessary in order to move ahead minimizing the extent to which our expectations are missed and the eventual disappointment to ourselves. Are we bound to witness rates achieved at the pick of last cycle for prolonged periods anytime soon? Probably not. But this doesn’t mean that there isn’t still value in operating ships today. I often hear that the entry of private equity in shipping in the past years has added to the often talked about oversupply of tonnage, but in my opinion this is not true. Private equity is actually behind a fairly small part of the funding that added the “extra” tonnage we are dealing with today. What non-traditional shipping players are responsible for though, is probably the change of mentality that made some in our industry eager to chase the quick asset play rather than operate a ship throughout its commercial life and gain from market conditions that could still bring along substantial profits. So let’s get back to the basics and hope that this won’t be a resolution that shares the same fate most New Year resolutions do...
Eva Tzima
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
 About the Author
Eva Tzima has experience of more than a decade as a financial analyst and has focused on the shipping industry through private equity projects as well as maritime stock analysis. Since 2012 she has been working as a Research analyst at Intermodal Shipbrokers Co., where she currently holds the position of Head of Research, focusing in the specific analysis of the SnP, Newbuilding and Demolition markets across the Dry Bulk, Tanker, Container and Gas Carrier sectors.
Previous to her current post she worked as an investment manager for a privately owned portfolio and in Trafalgar Asset Managers Ltd in London, mainly focusing in Private Equity Projects in the shipping, energy and aircraft sectors, as well as in Primary and Secondary Debt investments. During her employment in Trafalgar she acted as a director across a number of boards of entities affiliated to Trafalgar.
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 05 January 15
FIVE ENERGY SURPRISES FOR 2015: THE POSSIBLE AND THE IMPROBABLE - KURT COBB
The coming year is likely to be as full of surprises in the field of energy as 2014 was. We just don't know which surprises! I am not predictin ...
Monday, 05 January 15
THE SHIPPING MARKET IN 2014 AND LOOKING FORWARD - BIMCO
2014 started with plenty of optimism for a considerably better global economy and an improved shipping market. Things turned out somewhat different ...
Monday, 05 January 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q1'15 DELIVERY CLOSED US$ 0.45 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q2'15 CLOSING
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery lost US$ 0.60 per MT (-1.15%) month over month and gained US$ 0.02 (+0.04%) ...
Sunday, 04 January 15
BALTIC DRY INDEX CONTINUES ITS DECLINE IN 2015
Wish you all a very Happy New Year 2015. The last report was dated 19th Dec 2014 and due to Christmas and new year holidays no reports were publish ...
Saturday, 03 January 15
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION FELL 11.2% TO 17.6 MMST WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 17.6 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Planning Commission, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
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