We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Monday, 05 January 15
THE SHIPPING MARKET IN 2014 AND LOOKING FORWARD - BIMCO
 2014 started with plenty of optimism for a considerably better global economy and an improved shipping market. Things turned out somewhat differently. Adverse weather conditions in the US during winter were the dominant factor, creating a difficult first half of the year for the global economy. The developing and emerging markets continued on a downward trend, while a sunnier outlook from the US and Europe had the effect of moving the already more advanced economies forward.
The quantitative easing programme of the US Central Bank has now ended. This is a landmark in terms of recovery. Following a quadrupling of the US monetary base, unemployment has come down, the stock market has gone up and economic growth has become more robust. The UK has followed the same path as the US, with similar results. This is outstanding in the otherwise sluggish European economic development.
In Japan, “Abenomics” is facing headwinds caused by a hike in sales taxes and a subsequent return to recession. Japan’s economy has been stagnating for decades, and it is unlikely to move much further forward from this in 2015.
The slowing of the Chinese economy is adding uncertainty to the level of shipping demand generated in the Far East. Its soft landing seems to incur turbulence, with some indicators suggesting the official GDP data may not give us the full story.
Growth in emerging markets and developing economies is set for a comeback in 2015, with GDP-growth improving from 4.4% in 2014 to 5.0% in 2015. The advanced economies are likely to stay on the recovery track, and improve their GDP-growth to 2.3% in 2015 (1.8% in 2014). The common challenges remain poor inflation expectations, a lack of structural reforms and lack of job creation. There is clearly room for more political initiatives in 2015 to support the global economy.
Supply: A stalling orderbook means reality has hit home
The total orderbook remained unchanged during 2014. This signals that the industry is now realising that more new orders may not be the right thing to do after all.
The fundamental oversupply of capacity in all of the major shipping segments has not changed much over the past year. A higher level of demand has only just matched the net supply of new tonnage coming on stream.
Crude oil tankers are the only exception to the general status quo in the balance of freight markets. A multi-year low inflow of new crude oil tankers has stimulated earnings growth of some 20% compared to 2013. Meanwhile, the growing supply pressure in product tankers neutralised most of the growing demand side, with earnings coming in just a little shy of 2013.
Container ships keep getting bigger, breaking previous size records for both individual ships and the average size across the fleet. The CSCL Globe, with a capacity of 19,000 TEU, was launched in November, and the average TEU capacity of a 2014-newbuild increased to 7,400 TEU, up from 6,600 TEU in 2013. Next year the scheduled average is 8,000 TEU.
Looking forward to 2015, BIMCO expects the dry bulk fleet to have found a new “normal” level of supply side growth, expanding by 5.1% (5.5% in 2014). Regrettably, the level is still too high to reduce the glut of ships in the market. For tankers, BIMCO expects the dirty segment to grow by 1.7% (1.3% in 2014). Three years of low supply growth has led to more positive short-term prospects for crude oil tankers. In the clean segment, the estimated supply growth for 2015 is 4.6% (4.3% in 2014). Supply growth in the container ship segment is expected to drop to 5.8% in 2015 (6.2% in 2014).
Dry Bulk: New challenges await as demand slows down
BIMCO expects dry bulk demand to slow in 2015 to a rate of 4-5%. Iron ore demand will again be the centre of attention. In recent years, demand growth has been biased heavily towards the Capesize segment. In 2014, 70% of the total volume growth came from increased iron ore demand driven by China. BIMCO expects this trend to continue, with Capesizes outperforming the smaller sizes relatively.
The strong iron ore demand in 2014 was somewhat neutralised by weaker coal demand from China. Meanwhile, the Indonesian ban on exports of unprocessed bauxite and nickel ore resulted in a weak Supramax market in the Far East.
Towards the end of the year, the late arrival of strong exports of iron ore out of Brazil proved to be insufficient to deliver on the promise of 2013, when rates for all segments went up. While earnings had hit the floor in 2012, BIMCO expected 2014 to build on the optimism of 2013 and continue on the road to recovery. That did not materialise.
Tanker: what is the “new normal” demand level?
The crude oil tanker market started 2014 on a very positive note, with a five-year-high for earnings in the first quarter. The market’s strength showed clearly in early autumn and in the current winter market. The export of crude oil from West Africa has shifted from West to East as the US has reduced its imports to almost zero. This has given the demand side momentum, as West Africa now export more to the Far East, creating many more ton-miles.
For product tankers, the final quarter of 2014 contrasts greatly with the dull and flat market we have seen for most of the year. Despite US oil product export growth slowing down, it remains a positive story overall. Demand growth just managed to match supply growth, as the positive events arrived late in the year for the shipping market as well as in global economics.
Falling oil prices stirred some positive unrest in the tanker market, with rising tonnage demand in their wake. In spite of the price drop arising from weak oil demand and oversupply in the market, the current low and volatile commodity price is good for trading and shipping.
With a dramatic fall in bunker prices, it is vital for a continued industry recovery that all shipping segments resist higher speeds. Failure to do so may compromise improvement of the fundamental balance, which is essential to bring prosperity back.
Container: Will strong demand and slow steaming remain?
Strong demand growth on the large-volume trades from Far East to US and Europe has brought lower volatility in freight rates on key trades while re-activating most of the previously idle ships.
However, during peak season, the steep drop in freight rates on the Far East to Europe trade lane made it clear that the utmost care is constantly required for the supply side, while the introduction of ever-larger ships continues.
Improved industry earnings currently rest on one central requirement: slow steaming and defence of individual market share. This highly competitive market only returns a positive margin if the cost base is extremely low.
BIMCO expects containership supply to continue to grow at its “new normal” level of around 6%, making the demand side a focal point. European demand has been stronger than private consumption figures indicated, and we may well see further improvement for US demand. The US East Coast could build further on a remarkable year as the ports prepare for the imminent arrival of ultra-large container ships. Enlargement projects in the Panama Canal and Suez Canal will further influence the deployment of ships.
Source: BIMCO | Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Monday, 12 January 15
SHIPPING - CHALLENGES AND RESOLUTIONS - EVA TZIMA
Last year has without a doubt been another challenging one both for both our industry and our country. As Greece is currently dominated by election ...
Sunday, 11 January 15
BDI DECLINED 8% ON WEEK; BCI LOST 31%
COALspot.com: The BDI continued its decline in the first week of this year or lost 8 pct week over week. The BDI was closed at 709 points whi ...
Friday, 09 January 15
U.S. EASTERN SPOT STEAM COAL PRICES FELL IN 2014; ROSE IN WEST - EIA
U.S. Eastern spot steam coal prices declined in 2014 compared to 2013 levels because of a decline in steam coal exports.
According to U.S. Ene ...
Friday, 09 January 15
WEEKLY U.S. COAL PRODUCTION UP AN ESTIMATED 2.2% Y-O-Y
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 17.6 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Thursday, 08 January 15
INDONESIA PRESSES ON WITH HIGHER COAL ROYALTY FEE TO BOOST STATE REVENUE - JG
The Indonesian government is pressing on with its plan to raise the royalty charged to coal miners in order to increase state revenue, but the move ...
|
|
|
Showing 3266 to 3270 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
|
| |
| |
|
