We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Monday, 05 January 15
FIVE ENERGY SURPRISES FOR 2015: THE POSSIBLE AND THE IMPROBABLE - KURT COBB
 The coming year is likely to be as full of surprises in the field of energy as 2014 was. We just don't know which surprises! I am not predicting that any of the following will happen, and they will be surprises to most people if they do. But, I think there is an outside chance that one or more will occur, and this would move markets and policy debates in unexpected directions.
1. U.S. crude oil and natural gas production decline for the first time since 2008 and 2005, respectively. The colossal markdown in world oil prices has belatedly been followed by a slightly smaller, but nevertheless dramatic markdown in U.S. natural gas prices. The drop in prices has already resulted in announcements from U.S. drillers that they will curtail their drilling operations significantly next year.
But drilling that is already contracted for will likely go forward, and wells waiting for completion will be completed. It can be costly to pull out of drilling contracts. And, failing to complete already successful wells and bring them into production is downright foolish since the costs incurred in drilling the wells including future debt payments remain. In those circumstances, some revenue at lower prices is preferable to no revenue at all.
Having said all that, scaled-down drilling plans when combined with what's left in drillers' immediate inventory both to drill and complete may not be enough to overcome the prodigious production decline rates from existing wells in deep shale deposits of oil and gas which have provided almost all the recent growth in U.S. production. The decline rates are 60 to 91 over three years for tight oil plays and 74 to 88 percent over three years for shale natural gas plays.
If low prices continue for a second year, the cheers for "Saudi" America will disappear. It was never to be anyway. What America has left is high-cost oil and natural gas. And, even at high prices both were likely to peak and decline in the next 5 years. Now, low prices may bring peak production rates in the coming year for both U.S. oil and natural gas--peaks that may never be seen again.
2. World crude oil closes below $30 per barrel. I think that such a price would only last a short time unless the world is in the throes of the next Great Depression. But since OPEC has reaffirmed that it will continue to pump oil at current rates until non-OPEC production declines, look for this game of chicken to create increasing inventories of oil worldwide for several months. The underlying cause for rising oil inventories is slowing economic growth in much of Asia, especially China, and economic stagnation in Europe and Japan. Any pickup in worldwide growth would send oil significantly higher than where it is today as oil demand increases.
3. Developments in solar thermal energy show that it can solve the storage problem for electricity from renewable energy. The difficulty with renewable energy supplying electricity is that electricity is very expensive to store (and so we do very little of this). Storage is important because renewable energy production comes when the wind blows and the sun shines, but not always when we need it. A breakthrough in solar thermal may be in the offing that would overcome previous limits on temperatures generated by solar thermal capture devices and make it possible to store heat cheaply enough to run solar electric generating plants around the clock at high output.
4. A climate agreement in Paris calls for binding greenhouse gas emissions limits. Expectations are exceedingly low for next summer's international climate conference to be held in Paris. The aim is to agree on binding limits for carbon emissions for the world's nations. Few people think that will happen no matter what the urgency of the matter.
But we cannot know what climate events might occur between now and the Paris conference that would change the outcome. It would have to be big, on the order of an ice shelf plopping into the ocean and raising sea-level enough to notice. Nevertheless, I would say that such a disturbing event becomes more likely with time and might be necessary to move the world's nations to a binding emissions agreement.
Even some progress in the direction of a binding agreement will have the world's energy analysts talking about stranded assets, a reference to the oil, natural gas and coal that would have to be left in the ground in order to avoid breaching agreed limits on carbon emissions. That would have significant consequences for the companies whose work is extracting and refining hydrocarbons.
5. Oil prices reach $100 per barrel before December 31, 2015. This is the other extreme from surprise No. 3. Almost all analysts expect oil prices to remain low, and many believe we are now entering a new era of cheap oil. (I, of course, don't buy it.) An earlier and more dramatic drop in production than anticipated and a greater rise in demand than anticipated could easily bring prices back above $100. I think this is more likely to happen later in 2016. But the timetable for a return to prices above $100 could be accelerated by many factors not now apparent.
I regard none of these events as likely which is why they would be surprises. But even one of these surprises would result in large financial gains or losses for many. And, either of two of them--binding greenhouse gas emissions limits or a breakthrough in renewable energy storage--would have giant consequences for the entire world.
About Author:
Kurt Cobb is an author, speaker, and columnist focusing on energy and the environment. He is a regular contributor to the Energy Voices section of The Christian Science Monitor and author of the peak-oil-themed novel Prelude. In addition, he has written columns for the Paris-based science news site Scitizen, and his work has been featured on Energy Bulletin (now Resilience.org), The Oil Drum, OilPrice.com, Econ Matters, Peak Oil Review, 321energy, Common Dreams, Le Monde Diplomatique and many other sites. He maintains a blog called Resource Insights.
Views and opinions / conclusion expressed herein are personal views of the author and not that of COALspot.com.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should hel ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA, CHINA DEMAND BOOST LOW-RANK THERMAL COAL PRICES IN ASIA - RUSSELL, REUTERS
Signs of stronger import demand from India have arrested the decline in price of the thermal coal grades most commonly sought by the world’s ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA CHEERS THE RETURN OF ‘KING COAL’ AS INDUSTRY SEES BUOYANT FUTURE - REUTERS
India’s coal industry celebrated the return of its major conference after a three-year pandemic hiatus by presenting a bullish view of demand ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
GEO CONNECT ASIA RETURNS IN MARCH TO ACCELERATE THE REGION’S GEOSPATIAL AND LOCATION INTELLIGENCE CAPABILITIES
Press Release: The third edition of GCA will be held in conjunction with Digital Construction Asia and the inaugural Drones Asia – an event d ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
THE DECLINE IN THE COAL PRICE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT - INTERMODAL
Last week, the front-month API2 future rose by 3.5%, but since the beginning of the year the future has fallen by 39% to $136.65/t, while the Newca ...
|
|
|
Showing 131 to 135 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
|
| |
| |
|
