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Monday, 05 January 15
FIVE ENERGY SURPRISES FOR 2015: THE POSSIBLE AND THE IMPROBABLE - KURT COBB
 The coming year is likely to be as full of surprises in the field of energy as 2014 was. We just don't know which surprises! I am not predicting that any of the following will happen, and they will be surprises to most people if they do. But, I think there is an outside chance that one or more will occur, and this would move markets and policy debates in unexpected directions.
1. U.S. crude oil and natural gas production decline for the first time since 2008 and 2005, respectively. The colossal markdown in world oil prices has belatedly been followed by a slightly smaller, but nevertheless dramatic markdown in U.S. natural gas prices. The drop in prices has already resulted in announcements from U.S. drillers that they will curtail their drilling operations significantly next year.
But drilling that is already contracted for will likely go forward, and wells waiting for completion will be completed. It can be costly to pull out of drilling contracts. And, failing to complete already successful wells and bring them into production is downright foolish since the costs incurred in drilling the wells including future debt payments remain. In those circumstances, some revenue at lower prices is preferable to no revenue at all.
Having said all that, scaled-down drilling plans when combined with what's left in drillers' immediate inventory both to drill and complete may not be enough to overcome the prodigious production decline rates from existing wells in deep shale deposits of oil and gas which have provided almost all the recent growth in U.S. production. The decline rates are 60 to 91 over three years for tight oil plays and 74 to 88 percent over three years for shale natural gas plays.
If low prices continue for a second year, the cheers for "Saudi" America will disappear. It was never to be anyway. What America has left is high-cost oil and natural gas. And, even at high prices both were likely to peak and decline in the next 5 years. Now, low prices may bring peak production rates in the coming year for both U.S. oil and natural gas--peaks that may never be seen again.
2. World crude oil closes below $30 per barrel. I think that such a price would only last a short time unless the world is in the throes of the next Great Depression. But since OPEC has reaffirmed that it will continue to pump oil at current rates until non-OPEC production declines, look for this game of chicken to create increasing inventories of oil worldwide for several months. The underlying cause for rising oil inventories is slowing economic growth in much of Asia, especially China, and economic stagnation in Europe and Japan. Any pickup in worldwide growth would send oil significantly higher than where it is today as oil demand increases.
3. Developments in solar thermal energy show that it can solve the storage problem for electricity from renewable energy. The difficulty with renewable energy supplying electricity is that electricity is very expensive to store (and so we do very little of this). Storage is important because renewable energy production comes when the wind blows and the sun shines, but not always when we need it. A breakthrough in solar thermal may be in the offing that would overcome previous limits on temperatures generated by solar thermal capture devices and make it possible to store heat cheaply enough to run solar electric generating plants around the clock at high output.
4. A climate agreement in Paris calls for binding greenhouse gas emissions limits. Expectations are exceedingly low for next summer's international climate conference to be held in Paris. The aim is to agree on binding limits for carbon emissions for the world's nations. Few people think that will happen no matter what the urgency of the matter.
But we cannot know what climate events might occur between now and the Paris conference that would change the outcome. It would have to be big, on the order of an ice shelf plopping into the ocean and raising sea-level enough to notice. Nevertheless, I would say that such a disturbing event becomes more likely with time and might be necessary to move the world's nations to a binding emissions agreement.
Even some progress in the direction of a binding agreement will have the world's energy analysts talking about stranded assets, a reference to the oil, natural gas and coal that would have to be left in the ground in order to avoid breaching agreed limits on carbon emissions. That would have significant consequences for the companies whose work is extracting and refining hydrocarbons.
5. Oil prices reach $100 per barrel before December 31, 2015. This is the other extreme from surprise No. 3. Almost all analysts expect oil prices to remain low, and many believe we are now entering a new era of cheap oil. (I, of course, don't buy it.) An earlier and more dramatic drop in production than anticipated and a greater rise in demand than anticipated could easily bring prices back above $100. I think this is more likely to happen later in 2016. But the timetable for a return to prices above $100 could be accelerated by many factors not now apparent.
I regard none of these events as likely which is why they would be surprises. But even one of these surprises would result in large financial gains or losses for many. And, either of two of them--binding greenhouse gas emissions limits or a breakthrough in renewable energy storage--would have giant consequences for the entire world.
About Author:
Kurt Cobb is an author, speaker, and columnist focusing on energy and the environment. He is a regular contributor to the Energy Voices section of The Christian Science Monitor and author of the peak-oil-themed novel Prelude. In addition, he has written columns for the Paris-based science news site Scitizen, and his work has been featured on Energy Bulletin (now Resilience.org), The Oil Drum, OilPrice.com, Econ Matters, Peak Oil Review, 321energy, Common Dreams, Le Monde Diplomatique and many other sites. He maintains a blog called Resource Insights.
Views and opinions / conclusion expressed herein are personal views of the author and not that of COALspot.com.
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Saturday, 25 March 23
COAL INDIA HAS STRONG CASE TO INCREASE PRICES, TALKS ON: CMD AGRAWAL - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal India (CIL) Chairman and Managing Director Pramod Agrawal said on Monday there is a “strong case” for increasing coal prices, and ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
ASIAN CRUDE PALM OIL WATCH 1Q23 - FITCH RATINGS
Malaysian benchmark crude palm oil (CPO) spot prices have averaged around USD915 per tonne (t) so far in 1Q23, sharply lower than the average of ar ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORT INCREASED BY 21.0% YOY TO 388.4 MLN T IN 2022 - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In the f ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
GLOBAL LNG-ASIA SPOT PRICES SLIP AS WEAK NORTHERN DEMAND REMAINS - REUTERS
Asian spot prices of liquefied natural gas (LNG) declined this week, falling to a 21-month low, as weak demand in the northeast Asia region continu ...
Wednesday, 22 March 23
OIL PRICE FALL SPECULATIVE, TO HIT $140 BY YEAR-END -ANDURAND: REUTERS
The recent fall in oil prices due to banking jitters is speculative and oil will hit $140 a barrel by the end of the year, hedge fund manager Pierr ...
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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